Survey forecasts in Brazil: A prismatic assessment of epidemiology, performance, and determinants
AbstractThis paper assesses the behavior of survey forecasts in Brazil during the inflation targeting regime, when managing expectations is one of the cornerstones of the conduct of monetary policy. The distinctive database of the survey conducted by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) among professional forecasters allows for a thorough investigation of the epidemiology, determinants, and performance of forecasts. The main results are: i) top performing forecasters are influential to other forecasters; ii) survey forecasts perform better than vector autoregressive model-based forecasts; iii) common forecast errors prevail over idiosyncratic components across respondents; iv) inflation targets play an important role in inflation expectations; and v) agents perceive the BCB as following a Taylor rule consistent with inflation targeting. The last two suggest high credibility of the monetary authority.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.
Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443
Survey forecasts; Inflation expectations; Inflation targeting; Credibility;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E49 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Other
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Domenico Colucci & V. Valori, 2001.
"Error learning behaviour and stability revisited,"
CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001
1A.1, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2007.
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 594-602, 04-05.
- Andy Bauer & Robert A. Eisenbeis & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2003. "Forecast evaluation with cross-sectional data: The Blue Chip Surveys," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 17-31.
- Christopher D Carroll, 2002.
"Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February.
- Afonso S Bevilaqua & Mário Mesquita & André Minella, 2008.
"Brazil: taming inflation expectations,"
BIS Papers chapters,
in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 139-158
Bank for International Settlements.
- André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003.
"Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility,"
Working Papers Series
77, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
- Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003.
"Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies,"
NBER Working Papers
10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008.
"Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence,"
1038, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-45, December.
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Blinder, Alan S. & Ehrmann, Michael & de Haan, Jakob & Fratzscher, Marcel & Jansen, David-Jan, 2008. "Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence," Working Paper Series 0898, European Central Bank.
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility Under Exchange Rate Volatility," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b26, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Robert Eisenbeis & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2002. "Evaluating Wall Street Journal survey forecasters: a multivariate approach," Working Paper 2002-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2004.
"Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1353, CESifo Group Munich.
- Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2008. "Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 718-742, 04.
- Cornand, Camille & Heinemann, Frank, 2006. "Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 158, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Michael Woodford, 2001.
"Monetary Policy in the Information Economy,"
NBER Working Papers
8674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary policy in the information economy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-370.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
- Fabia A de Carvalho & Mauricio S. Bugarin, 2006. "Inflation Expectations in Latin America," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
- André Minella & Nelson F. Souza-Sobrinho, 2009. "Monetary Channels in Brazil through the Lens of a Semi-Structural Model," Working Papers Series 181, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Söderlind, Paul, 2000.
"Inflation Forecast Uncertainty,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inci Ã–tker, 2007. "Moving to Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Occasional Papers 256, International Monetary Fund.
- Fabia A. de Carvalho & André Minella, 2009. "Market Forecasts in Brazil: performance and determinants," Working Papers Series 185, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.