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Inflation Expectations in Latin America

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Author Info

  • Fabia A de Carvalho

    ()

  • Mauricio S. Bugarin

    ()

Abstract

This paper tests the rationality of inflation forecasts surveyed in Mexico, Brazil, and Chile and identifies their recent formation rule. There is strong evidence that forecasts are unbiased, but forecasters have not been fully efficient in the use of available information. The paper assesses the importance of inflation targets to anchor inflation expectations in these countries and finds that in most cases there is room for improvement in credibility.

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File URL: http://www.brookings.edu/press/Journals/2006/economiaspring2006.aspx
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION in its journal Journal of LACEA Economia.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:col:000425:008652

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Cited by:
  1. Carvalho, Fabia A. & Minella, André, 2012. "Survey forecasts in Brazil: A prismatic assessment of epidemiology, performance, and determinants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1371-1391.
  2. Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2010. "Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas. Una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(306), pages 275-312, abril-jun.
  3. Sergio A. L. Alves & Waldyr D. Areosa, 2005. "Targets and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers Series 100, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Santiago García-Verdú, 2012. "The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Mexico," Working Papers 2012-06, Banco de México.

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