Sources of Disagreement in Inflation Forecasts: An International Empirical Investigation
AbstractCentral to the conduct of monetary policy are inflation forecasts. Inflation forecast are not unique. Central banks and professional organizations generate inflation forecasts while households are surveyed about their inflation outlook. This paper estimates inflation forecast disagreement for nine economies over the 1999-2009 period, five of which target inflation. I find that central bank transparency tends to increase forecast disagreement. To the extent this reflects the attention paid to inflation performance the implication is that transparency is beneficial. Moreover, this finding does not appear to be a feature that applies only to central banks that must adhere to an inflation target.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2012-42.
Length: 81 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
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Forecast disagreement; Central bank transparency; Inflation; Quantile regression; Panel regression;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
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