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What type of information calls the attention of forecasters? Evidence from survey data in an emerging market

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  • de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira
  • Vereda, Luciano
  • Araujo, Mateus de Azevedo

Abstract

This article analyzes the daily determinants of the degree of attention dedicated to the forecasts of three macroeconomic indicators: inflation, exchange rate, and output growth. Based on micro-data of expectations provided by the Central Bank of Brazil, we calculated two measures of the degree of attention: “active participation” and “update forecasts”. In addition, we present various stylized facts and perform several regressions that explain the daily degree of attention dedicated to forecasts taking into account: routine and horizons, incentives, risk, and information release events. The findings show that the main aspects that can increase the attention are: routines, incentive events, and releases of direct information regarding the macroeconomic indicator under consideration. Moreover, information concerning monetary policy decisions increases the degree of attention.

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  • de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Vereda, Luciano & Araujo, Mateus de Azevedo, 2022. "What type of information calls the attention of forecasters? Evidence from survey data in an emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:129:y:2022:i:c:s0261560622001255
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102722
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