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Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts

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Author Info

  • Olivier Coibion

    () (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary)

  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko

    () (Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

We propose a new approach to test of the null of full-information rational expectations which is informative about whether rejections of the null reflect departures from rationality or full-information. This approach can also quantify the economic significance of departures from the null by mapping them into the underlying degree of information rigidity faced by economic agents. Applying this approach to both U.S. and cross-country data of professional forecasters and other economic agents yields pervasive evidence of informational rigidities that can be explained by models of imperfect information. Furthermore, the proposed approach sheds new light on the implications of policies such as inflation-targeting and those leading to the Great Moderation on expectations. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process. implications.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, College of William and Mary in its series Working Papers with number 102.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 08 Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:102

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Keywords: Expectations; Information Rigidity; Survey Forecasts;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Paul Hubert, 2013. "The influence and policy signaling role of FOMC forecasts," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  2. J. Easaw & R. Golinelli & M. Malgarini, 2012. "Do Households Anchor their Inflation Expectations? Theory and Evidence from a Household Survey," Working Papers wp842, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  3. Arturo Ormeño, 2011. "Using Survey Data on Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 3552, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Central Bank Forecasts as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-23, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  5. Paul Hubert, 2013. "The influence and policy signaling role of FOMC forecasts," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  6. Paul Hubert, 2013. "ECB projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  7. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-17, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  8. Carrera, César, 2012. "Estimating Information Rigidity using Firms’ Survey Data," Working Papers 2012-004, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  9. Ormeño, Arturo, 2012. "Using Survey Data on Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers 2012-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  10. Kristoffer Nimark, 2011. "Man-bites-dog business cycles," Economics Working Papers 1341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2012.
  11. Paul Hubert, 2013. "ECB projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  12. Lena Dräger & Michael Lamla, 2013. "Imperfect Information and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201301, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  13. Paul Hubert, 2009. "Informational Advantage and Influence of Communicating Central Banks," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  14. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Prakash Loungani & Herman O. Stekler, 2011. "Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence," IMF Working Papers 11/125, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Kristoffer Nimark, 2012. "Man-bites-dog business cycles," 2012 Meeting Papers 127, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Kristoffer Nimark, 2012. "Speculative Dynamics in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 430, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  17. Mackowiak, Bartosz Adam & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2011. "Inattention to Rare Events," CEPR Discussion Papers 8626, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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