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Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?

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Author Info
Philippe Bacchetta () (Study Center Gerzensee)
Elmar Mertens () (Study Center Gerzensee)
Eric van Wincoop () (University of Virginia)

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Abstract

There is widespread evidence of excess return predictability in financial markets. In this paper we examine whether this predictability is related to expectational errors. To consider this issue, we use data on survey expectations of market participants in the stock market, the foreign exchange market, and the bond and money markets in various countries. We find that the predictability of expectational errors coincides with the predictability of excess returns: when a variable predicts expectational errors in a given market, it typically predicts the excess return as well. Understanding expectational errors appears crucial for explaining excess return predictability.

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Paper provided by Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee in its series Working Papers with number 06.04.

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Length: 68 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:0604

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Campbell, Rachel & Koedijk, Kees & Lothian, James R & Mahieu, Ronald J, 2007. "Irving Fisher, Expectational Errors, and the UIP Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2008. "Short-term interest rate futures as monetary policy forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 681, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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