This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

On the Biasedness of Forward Foreign Exchange Rates: Irrationality or Risk Premia?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Cavaglia, Stefano M F G
Verschoor, Willem F C
Wolff, Christian C P

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

In this article, the authors reconsider the K. A. Froot and J. A. Frankel (1989) results on the sources of forward discount bias. They question the economic validity of some estimation restrictions that they impose and, thus, are led to question some of their results. The authors employ a new exchange rate survey database that includes European Monetary System currencies and use univariate and pooling estimation techniques that impose fewer restrictions than those of Froot and Frankel to test their hypotheses. They find that the bias in the forward discount is attributable to both the failure of rational expectations and the existence of time-varying risk premia. Copyright 1994 by University of Chicago Press.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0021-9398%28199407%2967%3A3%3C321%3AOTBOFF%3E2.0.CO%3B2-4&origin=repec
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

Volume (Year): 67 (1994)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 321-43
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:67:y:1994:i:3:p:321-43

Contact details of provider:
Postal: The University of Chicago Press, Journals Division, P.O. Box 37005 Chicago, IL 60637
Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JB/home.html

Order Information:
Web: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JB/home.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Avik Chakraborty, 2004. "Learning, the Forward Premium Puzzle and Market Efficiency," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-4, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
  3. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 1999. "The risk premium, exchange rate expectations, and the forward exchange rate: Estimates for the Yen-Dollar rate," MPRA Paper 9775, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Marianne Nessen, 1997. "Exchange Rate Expectations, the Forward Exchange Rate Bias and Risk Premia in Target Zones," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 99-136, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Straetmans, Stefan & Versteeg, Roald & Wolff, Christian C, 2008. "Are Capital Controls in the Foreign Exchange Market Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6727, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kerstin Bernoth & Juergen von Hagen & Casper de Vries, 2007. "The Forward Premium Puzzle: new evidence from futures contracts," DNB Working Papers 125, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Nelson C. Mark & Yangru Wu, 1996. "Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 014, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2008. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Nelson Mark & Yangru Wu, 1998. "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise," Working Papers 98-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Bofinger, Peter & Leitner, Johannes & Schmidt, Robert, 2004. "Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C, 2005. "Time Variation in Term Premia: International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 4959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2006. "The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle: Evidence from New Cointegration Tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp123, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also indexes book chapters.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-6.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.