Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle
AbstractWe offer an explanation for the forward premium puzzle in foreign exchange markets based upon investor overconfidence. In the model, overconfident individuals overreact to their information about future inflation, which causes greater overshooting in the forward rate than in the spot rate. Thus, when agents observe a signal of higher future inflation, the consequent rise in the forward premium predicts a subsequent downward correction of the spot rate. The model can explain the magnitude of the forward premium bias and several other stylized facts related to the joint behavior of forward and spot exchange rates. Our approach is also consistent with the availability of profitable carry trade strategies
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 10-46.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics Duke University 213 Social Sciences Building Box 90097 Durham, NC 27708-0097
Phone: (919) 660-1800
Fax: (919) 684-8974
Web page: http://econ.duke.edu/
Other versions of this item:
- Craig Burnside & Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Tracy Yue Wang, 2011. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(2), pages 523-558.
- Craig Burnside & Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Tracy Yue Wang, 2010. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 15866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011.
"The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk: Reply,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3477-3500, December.
- Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk: A Reply," NBER Working Papers 13812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012.
"Currency momentum strategies,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Currency Momentum Strategies," Working Paper Series 09_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2011. "Currency Momentum Strategies," BIS Working Papers 366, Bank for International Settlements.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency Momentum Strategies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8747, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yu, Jianfeng, 2013. "A sentiment-based explanation of the forward premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 474-491.
- Steinar Holden, 2012.
"Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models,"
IMK Working Paper
99-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
- Steinar Holden, 2012. "Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models," Working Paper 2012/12, Norges Bank.
- Holden, Steinar, 2012. "Implications of Insights from Behavioral Economics for Macroeconomic Models," Memorandum 25/2012, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2013. "Does the forward premium puzzle disappear over the horizon?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3681-3693.
- Loring, Grace & Lucey, Brian, 2013. "An analysis of forward exchange rate biasedness across developed and developing country currencies: Do observed patterns persist out of sample?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 14-28.
- Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2013. "Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 139-163.
- Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Chang, Shu-Lien, 2013. "Spillovers of currency carry trade returns, market risk sentiment, and U.S. market returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 197-216.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Department of Economics Webmaster).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.