This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Incomplete Information Processing: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Philippe Bacchetta () (University of Lausanne, Studienzentrum Gerzensee and CEPR)
Eric van Wincoop () (University of Virginia)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The uncovered interest rate parity equation is the cornerstone of most models in international macro. However, this equation does not hold empirically since the forward discount, or interest rate di erential, is negatively related to the subsequent change in the exchange rate. This forward discount puzzle is one of the most extensively researched areas in international nance. It implies that excess returns on foreign currency investments are predictable. In this paper we propose a new explanation for this puzzle based on rational inattention. We develop a model where investors face a cost of collecting and processing information. Investors with low information processing costs trade actively, while other investors are inattentive and trade infrequently. We calibrate the model to the data and show that (i) inattention can account for most of the observed predictability of excess returns in the foreign exchange market, (ii) the bene t from frequent trading is relatively small so that few investors choose to be attentive, (iii) average expectational errors about future exchange rates are predictable in a way consistent with survey data for market participants, and (iv) the model can account for the puzzle of delayed overshooting of the exchange rate in response to interest rate shocks.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.szgerzensee.ch/fileadmin/Dateien_Anwender/Dokumente/working_papers/wp-0503.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: None

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee in its series Working Papers with number 05.03.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 40
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:0503

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Studienzentrum Gerzensee, Postfach 21, 3115 Gerzensee
Phone: ++41 (0)31 780 31 31
Fax: ++41 (0)31 780 31 00
Email:
Web page: http://www.szgerzensee.ch/

Order Information:
Postal: Studienzentrum Gerzensee, Postfach 21, 3115 Gerzensee
Email:
Web: http://www.szgerzensee.ch/publications/orderform.htm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Yves Ortiz).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2005. "Consumption Risk and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 185-222, February.
    Other versions:
  3. Ricardo Reis, 2004. "Inattentive Consumers," NBER Working Papers 10883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Carvalho, Carlos Viana de & Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar, 1999. "Endogenous Time-Dependent Rules and Inflation Inertia," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 348, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    Other versions:
  5. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New facts in finance," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 36-58. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Michael J. Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Under the microscope: the structure of the foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 81-95. [Downloadable!]
  7. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Time-varying risk, interest rates, and exchange rates in general equilibrium," Staff Report 371, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Zhang, Linxiu & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2002. "Employment, emerging labor markets, and the role of education in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 313-328. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Chaboud, Alain P. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2005. "Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 349-362, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Liu, Wei & Maynard, Alex, 2005. "Testing forward rate unbiasedness allowing for persistent regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 613-628, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Dale W. Jorgenson & Koji Nomura, 2005. "The Industry Origins of Japanese Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 11800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Duffie, Darrell & Sun, Tong-sheng, 1990. "Transactions costs and portfolio choice in a discrete-continuous-time setting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-51, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Consumption And Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns Are Time Varying," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 433-495, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x.
  21. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2002. "The 6D Bias and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1947, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Nelson Mark & Yangru Wu, 1998. "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise," Working Papers 98-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 217, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. Chow, Gregory C, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-42, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Charles Engel & Akito Matsumoto, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in a Monetary Open-Economy DSGE Model," IMF Working Papers 05/165, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  29. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2003. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 10026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  30. Baldwin, Richard, 1990. "Re-Interpreting the Failure of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests: Small Transaction Costs, Big Hysteresis Bands," CEPR Discussion Papers 407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2004. "Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 303-333, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
  36. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Predictive Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  37. Kui-Wai Li, 2003. "China's Capital and Productivity Measurement Using Financial Resources," Working Papers 851, Economic Growth Center, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  38. McMillan, John & Whalley, John & Zhu, Lijing, 1989. "The Impact of China's Economic Reforms on Agricultural Productivity Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 781-807, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Philip H. Dybvig & Heber K. Farnsworth & Jennifer Carpenter, 1999. "Portfolio Performance and Agency," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-046, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  40. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Nomura, Koji, 2005. "The industry origins of Japanese economic growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 482-542, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  41. Lynch, Anthony W, 1996. " Decision Frequency and Synchronization across Agents: Implications for Aggregate Consumption and Equity Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1479-97, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  42. Fan, Shenggen & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2002. "Production and Productivity Growth in Chinese Agriculture: New National and Regional Measures," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(4), pages 819-38, July.
  43. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  44. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  45. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2004. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany, revised Jul 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  46. Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Inattentive Producers," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(3), pages 793-821, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  47. Eric O'N. Fisher, 2000. "The Forward Premium in a Model with Heterogeneous Prior Beliefs," Working Papers 01-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  48. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  49. Bilias, Yannis & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Haliassos, Michalis, 2009. "Portfolio Inertia and Stock Market Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 7239, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  50. Kenneth Kasa, 2006. "Robustness and Information Processing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-33, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  51. Ravi Jagannathan & Yong Wang, 2005. "Consumption Risk and the Cost of Equity Capital," NBER Working Papers 11026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  52. Pierre Perron† & Tatsuma Wada, 2005. "Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-031, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  53. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  54. Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-61, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  55. Begg, David K H & Imperato, Isabella, 2001. "The Rationality of Information Gathering: Monopoly," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(3), pages 237-52, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  56. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  57. Zhang, Linxiu & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2002. "Employment, Emerging Labor Markets, And The Role Of Education In Rural China," Working Papers 11969, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  58. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  59. Annette Vissing-Jørgensen & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2003. "Stock-Market Participation, Intertemporal Substitution, and Risk-Aversion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 383-391, May. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About five million pdf files are downloaded through RePEc every year.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.