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Inferential Expectations

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  • Menzies Gordon Douglas

    ()
    (University of Technology, Sydney)

  • Zizzo Daniel John

    ()
    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

We propose that the formation of beliefs be treated as statistical hypothesis tests, and label such beliefs inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, we assume agents switch to the rational expectation. Thus, if the test size is unity, agents hold rational expectations. We solve a Dornbusch-style model of exchange rates under rational expectations and inferential expectations. Under the latter we prove that the regression tests of Uncovered Interest Parity and the rational expectations version of the term structure display a downward bias. The model also explains delayed overshooting and sharp changes in exchange rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (December)
Pages: 1-27

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:9:y:2009:i:1:n:42

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Menzies, Gordon D. & Zizzo, Daniel John, 2012. "Monetary policy and inferential expectations of exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 359-380.
  2. Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2006. "Exchange Rate Markets And Conservative Inferential Expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2007-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2010. "Inferential Expectations and the Missing Middle of Price Changes," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 008, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  4. Timo Henckel & Gordon D. Menzies & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2010. "Threshold Pricing in a Noisy World," CAMA Working Papers 2010-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  5. Bruce Lyons & Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2012. "Conflicting evidence and decisions by agency professionals: an experimental test in the context of merger regulation," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(3), pages 465-499, September.
  6. Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Nicholas Prokhovnik & Daniel Zizzo, 2010. "Barro-Gordon Revisited: Reputational Equilibria with Inferential Expectations," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 018, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  7. Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2008. "News And Expectations In Financial Markets: An Experimental Study," CAMA Working Papers 2008-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Gordon Menzies & Daniel John Zizzo, 2004. "Inferential Expectations," Economics Series Working Papers 187, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  9. Bruce Lyons & Gordon Douglas Menzies & Daniel John Zizzo, 2009. "Professional interpretation of the standard of proof: An experimental test on merger regulation," Working Paper series, University of East Anglia, Centre for Behavioural and Experimental Social Science (CBESS) 09-16, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  10. Monica Correa-Lopez & George Choullarakis, 2012. "A Fair Wage Model of Unemployment with Inertia in Fairness Perceptions," Working Papers 1203, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  11. Easaw Joshy & Golinelli Roberto, 2010. "Households Forming Inflation Expectations: Active and Passive Absorption Rates," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, November.

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