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Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle

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Leon, Hyginus
Sarno, Lucio
Valente, Giorgio

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Abstract

We provide empirical evidence that deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transactions costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less indicative of major market inefficiencies than previously thought. Monte Carlo experiments allow us to reconcile these results with the large empirical literature on the forward bias puzzle since we show that, if the true process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional spot-forward regressions would generate the anomalies documented in previous research.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5527.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5527

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Related research
Keywords: foreign exchange; forward bias; nonlinearity; uncovered interest parity;

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "Resolving the unbiasedness puzzle in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2009-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sofiane Amri, 2008. "Analysing the forward premium anomaly using a Logistic Smooth Transition Regression model," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(26), pages 1-18. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christian Wagner, 2008. "Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Speculative Efficiency of Currency Markets," Working Papers 143, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  4. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 14082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Arnaud Mehl & Lorenzo Cappiello, 2007. "Uncovered interest oparity at distant horizons - evidence on emerging economies & nonlinearities," Working Paper Series 801, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jose Olmo & Keith Pilbeam, 2009. "The profitability of carry trades," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 231-241, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bastourre, Diego, 2008. "Cambio fundamental o especulación financiera en los mercados de commodities? Un modelo con ajuste no lineal al equilibrio
    [Structural break or financial speculation in commodity markets? A multiva    ," MPRA Paper 9910, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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