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Smooth Transition Models and Arbitrage Consistency

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  • David A. Peel
  • Ioannis A. Venetis

Abstract

Slow adjustment of real exchange rate towards equilibrium in linear models has long puzzled researchers, stimulating the adoption of nonlinear models. The exponential smooth transition model has been particularly successful, providing faster adjustment speeds. This paper discusses some of its theoretical limitations, for example that expectations are adaptive. We propose a new nonlinear model conceptually superior to the ESTAR model since it is consistent with rational expectations. One of its advantages is that it can be solved and estimated by nonlinear least squares. Using monthly post‐1973 real exchange rate data, we show that the model implies even faster speeds of adjustment.

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  • David A. Peel & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2005. "Smooth Transition Models and Arbitrage Consistency," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(287), pages 413-430, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:72:y:2005:i:287:p:413-430
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0013-0427.2005.00423.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Hyginus Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-482, September.
    2. Copeland, Laurence & Lu, Wenna, 2016. "Dodging the steamroller: Fundamentals versus the carry trade," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 115-131.
    3. Jiang, Chun & Li, Xiao-Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei, 2013. "Uncovered interest parity and risk premium convergence in Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 204-208.
    4. Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Chang, Tsangyao & Yin, Kedong, 2014. "Monetary convergence in East Asian countries relative to China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 228-237.
    5. Copeland, Laurence & Heravi, Saeed, 2006. "Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Mechanism," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/21, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    6. Nicolau João, 2011. "Purchasing Power Parity Analyzed from a Continuous-Time Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-26, May.
    7. Copeland, Laurence & Lu, Wenna, 2013. "Dodging the Steamroller: Fundamentals versus the Carry Trade," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2013.
    8. Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A. & Spiru, Alina, 2010. "The forward premium puzzle in the interwar period and deviations from covered interest parity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 55-57, July.
    9. Lin, Jeng-Bau & Liang, Chin-Chia & Yeh, Ming-Liang, 2011. "Examining nonlinear dynamics of exchange rates and forecasting performance based on the exchange rate parity of four Asian economies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 79-85, March.
    10. Wen Zhang & Hsu-Ling Chang & Chi-Wei Su, 2014. "Do real interest rates converge across Latin american countries?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 13(2), pages 117-130, August.
    11. Liu, Yan & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei, 2013. "Do real interest rates converge across East Asian countries based on China?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 467-473.

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