IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Smooth transition models and arbitrage consistency

Slow adjustment of real exchange rate towards its long run equilibrium in linear models has long puzzled researchers and provided the impetus for the adoption of particular classes of nonlinear models. The exponential smooth transition model has been particularly successful as an ex post characterization of time series purchasing power parity data providing faster adjustment speeds. In this paper we discuss some of its theoretical limitations as an ex ante data generating mechanism since one interpretation of it is that expectations are adaptive. We propose a new nonlinear model which is conceptually superior to the ESTAR model since it is consistent with rational expectations. One of the advantages of the model is that it can be solved and estimated by nonlinear least squares. Using monthly post-1973 real exchange rate data, we show that the model implies even faster speeds of adjustment.

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Paper provided by Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department in its series Working Papers with number 566786.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:566786
Contact details of provider: Postal: LANCASTER LA1 4YX
Phone: +44 (1524) 594601
Fax: +44 (1524) 594244
Web page: http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/lums
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  2. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. " The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-19, September.
  3. Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr & Locke, Peter R & Yu, Wei, 1996. "Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the S&P 500 Futures and Cash," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 301-32.
  4. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
  5. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & John Barkoulas, 1998. "Nonlinear Adjustment to Purchasing Power Parity in the post-Bretton Woods Era," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 404., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 16 Nov 1999.
  6. Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
  7. Louis Dorrance Johnston & Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence From a Panel of 14 Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/66, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  9. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," NBER Working Papers 5167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Uppal, Raman, 1993. " A General Equilibrium Model of International Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 529-53, June.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld and Alan M. Taylor., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-088, University of California at Berkeley.
  12. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
  13. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  14. Koedijk, Kees G. & Schotman, Peter C. & Van Dijk, Mathijs A., 1998. "The re-emergence of PPP in the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 51-61, February.
  15. Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  17. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  18. D. A. Peel & I. A. Venetis, 2003. "Purchasing power parity over two centuries: trends and nonlinearity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 609-617.
  19. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Taylor, Nick & Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 2000. "SETS, arbitrage activity, and stock price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1289-1306, August.
  21. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  22. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-28, May.
  23. Martens, M. & Kofman, P. & Vorst, T.C.F., 1995. "A Threshold Error Correction Model for Intraday Futures and Index Returns," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/95, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  24. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207, March.
  25. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:566786. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maurizio Zanardi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.