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Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Mechanism

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We show that the behaviour of the real exchange rates of the UK, Germany, France and Japan has been characterised by structural breaks which changed the adjustment mechanism. In the context of a Time-Varying Smooth Transition AutoRegressive of the kind introduced by Lundbergh et al (2003), we show that the real exchange rate process shifted in the aftermath of Black Wednesday in the case of the Pound, in 1984-5 in the case of the Franc and, more tentatively, during the Asian crisis of 1997-8 in the case of the Yen.

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  • Copeland, Laurence & Heravi, Saeed, 2006. "Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Mechanism," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/21, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2006/21
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    1. Q. Farooq Akram & √ėyvind Eitrheim & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Non-linear dynamics in output, real exchange rates and real money balances: Norway, 1830-2003," Working Paper 2005/2, Norges Bank.
    2. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin & Andy Snell, 2000. "Testing for a Unit Root against Nonlinear STAR Models," ESE Discussion Papers 69, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    3. M Kesriyeli & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Nonlinearity and Structural Change in Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the US, UK and Germany," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 44, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    4. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2000. "Testing for a Linear Unit Root against Nonlinear Threshold Stationarity," ESE Discussion Papers 60, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
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