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Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums

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  • Lucio Sarno

    ()
    (Faculty of Finance, Cass Business School, City University London, UK; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), UK; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Italy)

  • Paul Schneider

    ()
    (Finance Group, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, UK)

  • Christian Wagner

    ()
    (Institute for Finance, Banking and Insurance, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria)

Abstract

We study the properties of foreign exchange risk premiums that can explain the forward bias puzzle, defined as the tendency of high-interest rate currencies to appreciate rather than depreciate. These risk premiums arise endogenously from the no-arbitrage condition relating the term structure of interest rates and exchange rates. Estimating affine (multi-currency) term structure models reveals a noticeable tradeoff between matching depreciation rates and accuracy in pricing bonds. Risk premiums implied by our global affine model generate unbiased predictions for currency excess returns and are closely related to global risk aversion, the business cycle, and traditional exchange rate fundamentals.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 10_12.

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Date of creation: Mar 2012
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Publication status: Forthcoming in the Journal of Financial Economics
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:10_12

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Keywords: term structure; exchange rates; forward bias; predictability;

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Cited by:
  1. Yin, Weiwei & Li, Junye, 2014. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate dynamics: A no-arbitrage macro-finance approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-64.
  2. Gregory H. Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
  3. Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Risk-premia, carry-trade dynamics, and economic value of currency speculation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1195-1219.
  4. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan, 2013. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Discussion Papers 50/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Jeremy Graveline & Irina Zviadadze & Mikhail Chernov, 2012. "Crash Risk in Currency Returns," 2012 Meeting Papers 753, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "Countercyclical Currency Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 16427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Pippenger, John, 2012. "What Covered Interest Parity Implies about the Theory of Uncovered Interest Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt0zk6t2hj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  8. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency momentum strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
  9. Tarek A. Hassan & Rui C. Mano, 2014. "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-currency World," NBER Working Papers 20294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2013. "Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 139-163.
  11. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.

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