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Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets

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Author Info
Hanno Lustig
Nikolai Roussanov
Adrien Verdelhan

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Abstract

We identify a 'slope' factor in exchange rates. High interest rate currencies load more on this slope factor than low interest rate currencies. As a result, this factor can account for most of the cross-sectional variation in average excess returns between high and low interest rate currencies. A standard, no-arbitrage model of interest rates with two factors - a country- specific factor and a global factor - can replicate these findings, provided there is sufficient heterogeneity in exposure to the global risk factor. We show that our slope factor is a global risk factor. By investing in high interest rate currencies and borrowing in low interest rate currencies, US investors load up on global risk, particularly during bad times.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14082.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14082

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," NBER Working Papers 12489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Burnside, A Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2007. "The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 6148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2008. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk," 2004 Meeting Papers 136c, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2008. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing Under the Microscope," NBER Working Papers 14165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Hyginus Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 443-482, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2004. "Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 303-333, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Frachot, Antoine, 1996. "A reexamination of the uncovered interest rate parity hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 419-437, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 13805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2003. "The Conditional CAPM Does Not Explain Asset-pricing Anomalies," Working papers 4427-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, 1996. "Affine Models of Currency Pricing," NBER Working Papers 5623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and Predictability of the Carry Trade Premium: Euro Area Evidence," IEW - Working Papers iewwp387, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aidan Corcoran, 2009. "The Determinants of Carry Trade Risk Premia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp287, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul Soderlind & Angelo Ranaldo & Charlotte Christiansen, 2009. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-06, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Mouhamadou Sy & Hamidreza Tabarraei, 2009. "Carry trade and return crash risk," PSE Working Papers 2009-14, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  5. Thomas Nitschka, 2009. "Momentum in stock market returns, risk premia on foreign currencies and international financial integration," IEW - Working Papers iewwp405, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
  6. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers UWEC-2009-04, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2009. "Carry Trades and Global FX Volatility," MPRA Paper 14728, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2009. "Safe Haven Currencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 7249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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