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The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey
  • Poonawala, Jumana

Abstract

Many studies have replicated the finding that the forward rate is a biased predictor of the future change in the spot exchange rate. Usually the forward discount actually points in the wrong direction. But, at least until recently, those studies applied only to advanced economies and major currencies. We apply the same tests to a sample of 14 emerging market currencies. We find a smaller bias than for advanced country currencies. The coefficient is on average positive, i.e., the forward discount at least points in the right direction. It is never significantly less than zero. To us this suggests that a time-varying exchange risk premium may not be the explanation for traditional findings of bias. The reasoning is that emerging markets are probably riskier; yet we find that the bias in their forward rates is smaller. Emerging market currencies probably have more easily-identified trends of depreciation than currencies of advanced countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 585-598
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:3:p:585-598

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

For corrections or technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Jeroen Loos).

Related research

Keywords: Forward discount Forward premium Bias Puzzle Emerging markets Uncovered interest parity Exchange risk premium Exchange rate;

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References

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  2. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971 Elsevier.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Wolff & Stefan T.M. Straetmans & Roald J. Versteeg, 2008. "Are Capital Controls in the Foreign Exchange Market Effective?," LSF Research Working Paper Series 08-12, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
  2. Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "The Common Component in the Forward Premium: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Region," MPRA Paper 24549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Byrne, Joseph P & Nagayasu, Jun, 2011. "Common factors of the exchange risk premium in emerging European markets," MPRA Paper 31393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Colavecchio , Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2007. "Volatility dependence across Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures markets," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  5. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Stephen Gilmore & Fumio Hayashi, 2008. "Emerging Market Currency Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 14528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Joseph P. Byrne & Jun Nagayasu, 2008. "Common and idiosyncratic factors of the exchange risk premium in emerging European markets," Working Papers 2008_28, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  8. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Clemens Kool, 2006. "The Importance of Interest Rate Volatility in Empirical Tests of Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 06-16, Utrecht School of Economics.
  9. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Evsey Gurvich & Vladimir Sokolov & Alexey Ulyukaev, 2009. "Analysis of the Relationship Between the Exchange Rate Policy of the Russian Central Bank and the Interest Rates: Uncovered and Covered Parity," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 1-2, pages 104-126.
  11. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2011. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," CEPR Discussion Papers 8503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. repec:cdl:ucsbec:1284767 is not listed on IDEAS

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