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Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies

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  • Menzie Chinn
  • Jeffrey Frankel

Abstract

We investigate the properties of exchange rate forecasts with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. The key finding is that expectations appear to be biased in our sample. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures. Investors would be better off placing less weight on their forecasts or the forward rate, and more on the current spot rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3807.

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Date of creation: Aug 1991
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Publication status: published as Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. vol. 26, no. 4, Nov. 1994.pp. 754-770
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3807

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Cited by:
  1. Jeffrey Frankel & Jumana Poonawala, 2006. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased Than in Major Currencies," NBER Working Papers 12496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
  3. Levin, Jay H., 1997. "Stabilization policy, exchange rate expectations, and international transmission," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 19-40, February.
  4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2000. "How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," NBER Working Papers 7524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Sandro C. Andrade & Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2010. "Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets: the case of Brazil in 2002," Working Papers Series 211, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy Yue, 2005. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," Working Paper Series 2005-21, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Chudozie Okongwu, 1995. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Capital Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," NBER Working Papers 5156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Menzie D. Chinn & Saad Quayyum, 2012. "Long Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity Re-Assessed," NBER Working Papers 18482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Chudozie Okongwu., 1995. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-054, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Is the foreign exchange market 'risky'? Some new survey-based results," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, January.
  12. Xu, Juanyi, 2010. "Noise traders, exchange rate disconnect puzzle, and the Tobin tax," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 336-357, March.

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