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The Cross-Section of Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk

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Hanno Lustig
Adrien Verdelhan

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Abstract

Aggregate consumption growth risk explains why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. We sort foreign T-bills into portfolios based on the nominal interest rate differential with the US, and we test the Euler equation of a US investor who invests in these currency portfolios. US investors earn negative excess returns on low interest rate currency portfolios and positive excess returns on high interest rates currency portfolios. We find that low interest rate currencies provide US investors with a hedge against US aggregate consumption growth risk, because these currencies appreciate on average when US consumption growth is low, while high interest rate currencies depreciate when US consumption growth is low. As a result, the risk premia predicted by the Consumption-CAPM match the average excess returns on these currency portfolios.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11104.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11104

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G0 - Financial Economics - - General
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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  3. Hanno N. Lustig & Stijn G. Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1167-1219, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: a cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying," Staff Reports 93, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2001. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 2000. "Explaining the Poor Performance of Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2863-2878, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. John Y. Campbell, 2002. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1974, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 217, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jeffrey Frankel & Jumana Poonawala, 2006. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased Than in Major Currencies," NBER Working Papers 12496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Time-varying risk, interest rates, and exchange rates in general equilibrium," Staff Report 371, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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