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Explaining the Poor Performance of Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models

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Author Info
John Y. Campbell (Harvard University and NBER,)
John H. Cochrane (University of Chicago, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and NBER)

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Abstract

We show that the external habit-formation model economy of Campbell and Cochrane (1999) can explain why the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and its extensions are betterapproximate asset pricing models than is the standard onsumption-based model. The model economy produces time-varying expected eturns, tracked by the dividend-price ratio. Portfolio-based models capture some of this variation in state variables, which a state-independent function of consumption cannot capture. Therefore, though the consumption-based model and CAPM are both perfect "conditional" asset pricing models, the portfolio-based models are better approximate "unconditional" asset pricing models. Copyright The American Finance Association 2000.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 55 (2000)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 2863-2878
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:6:p:2863-2878

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-86, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gomes, Joao F & Kogan, Leonid & Zhang, Lu, 2002. "Equilibrium Cross-Section of Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ronald J. Balvers & Dayong Huang, 2005. "Productivity-Based Asset Pricing: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 05-05, Department of Economics, West Virginia University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: a cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying," Staff Reports 93, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Kirill Sossunov, 2002. "A Real Business Cycle Model with Changing Sentiments," Macroeconomics 0210005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Elena Márquez de la Cruz, 2005. "La elasticidad de sustitución intertemporal y el consumo duradero: un análisis para el caso español," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(3), pages 455-481, September. [Downloadable!]
  7. Vance Martin & G.C. Lim & Esfandiar Maasoumi, 2004. "Discounting The Equity Premium Puzzle," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 331, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jessica A. Wachter, 2005. "Solving Models with External Habit," NBER Working Papers 11559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Willi Semmler & Lars Grüne, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Delayed Consumption Decisions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 59, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hanno Lustig, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk (joint with Adrien Verdelhan)(updated February 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 303, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Grammig, Joachim & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2006. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with a Reference Level: New Evidence from the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-32, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kevin L. Reffett & Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Evaluating Asset Pricing Implications of DSGE Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1630, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  13. Alon Brav & George M. Constantinides & Christopher C. Geczy, 2002. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers and Limited Participation: Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Fousseni Chabi-Yo, 2006. "Conditioning Information and Variance Bounds on Pricing Kernels with Higher-Order Moments: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 06-38, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  15. Yu Ren & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2007. "Improvement in Finite Sample Properties of the Hansen-Jagannathan Distance Test," Working Papers 1126, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2006. "Specification tests of asset pricing models using excess returns," Working Paper 2006-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  17. William R. Emmons & Frank A. Schmid, 2000. "The Asian crisis and the exposure of large U.S. firms," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 15-34. [Downloadable!]
  18. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2005. "The Cross-Section of Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk," NBER Working Papers 11104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Michael W. Brandt & David A. Chapman, 2006. "Linear Approximations and Tests of Conditional Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 12513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Kris Jacobs & Kevin Q. Wang, 2002. "Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-11, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  21. Vassalou, Maria, 2001. "News Related to Future GDP Growth as a Risk Factor in Equity Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3057, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Long Chen & Ralitsa Petkova & Lu Zhang, 2006. "The Expected Value Premium," NBER Working Papers 12183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46. [Downloadable!]
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