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The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns

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Author Info
 Jagannathan, Ravi
Wang, Zhenyu

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Abstract

Most empirical studies of the static capital asset pricing model (CAPM) assume that betas remain constant over time and that the return on the value-weighted portfolio of all stocks is a proxy for the return on aggregate wealth. The general consensus is that the static CAPM is unable to explain satisfactorily the cross-section of average returns on stocks. The authors assume that the CAPM holds in a conditional sense, i.e., betas and the market risk premium vary over time. They include the return on human capital when measuring the return on aggregate wealth. The authors' specification performs well in explaining the cross-section of average returns. Copyright 1996 by American Finance Association.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 51 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 3-53
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:51:y:1996:i:1:p:3-53

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bansal, Ravi & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " No Arbitrage and Arbitrage Pricing: A New Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1231-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
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  6. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Shanken, Jay, 1985. "Multivariate tests of the zero-beta CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 327-348, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "On correlations and inferences about mean-variance efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 61-90, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Mandelker, Gershon, 1974. "Risk and return: The case of merging firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 303-335, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Bansal, Ravi & Hsieh, David A & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " A New Approach to International Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1719-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Chan, K. C. & Chen, Nai-fu & Hsieh, David A., 1985. "An exploratory investigation of the firm size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 451-471, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Zhou, Guofu, 1994. "Analytical GMM Tests: Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Risk Premiums," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 687-709. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1988. " An Unconditional Asset-Pricing Test and the Role of Firm Size as an Instrumental Variable for Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 309-25, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. V.V. Chari & Ravi Jagannathan & Aharon R. Ofer, 1987. "Seasonalities in security returns: the case of earnings announcements," Staff Report 110, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  30. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
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  31. Bhandari, Laxmi Chand, 1988. " Debt/Equity Ratio and Expected Common Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 507-28, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Breen, William & Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1989. " Economic Significance of Predictable Variations in Stock Index Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1177-89, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Bodurtha, James N, Jr & Mark, Nelson C, 1991. " Testing the CAPM with Time-Varying Risks and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1485-1505, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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