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Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns: A Perspective on Conditional Asset Pricing

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Author Info
Wayne E. Ferson
Campbell R. Harvey

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Abstract

This paper provides a global asset pricing perspective on the debate over the relation between predetermined attributes of common stocks, such as ratios of price-to-book-value, cash-flow, earnings, and other variables to the future returns. Some argue that such variables may be used to find securities that are systematically undervalued by the market, while others argue that the measures are proxies for exposure to underlying economic risk factors. It is not possible to distinguish between these views without explicitly modeling the relation between such attributes and risk factors. We present an empirical framework for attacking the problem at a global level, assuming integrated markets. Our perspective pulls together the traditional academic and practitioner viewpoints on lagged attributes. We present new evidence on the relative importance of risk and mispricing effects, using monthly data for 21 national equity markets. We find that the cross-sectional explanatory power of the lagged attributes is related to both risk and mispricing in the two-factor model than mispricing.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5860.

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Date of creation: Dec 1996
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5860

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
G0 - Financial Economics - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    Other versions:
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Full references

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lombardo, Davide & Pagano, Marco, 1999. "Legal Determinants of the Return on Equity," CEPR Discussion Papers 2275, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Economic, Financial, and Fundamental Global Risk In and Out of the EMU," NBER Working Papers 6967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 2001. "Empirical Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models: A Comparison of the SDF and Beta Methods," NBER Working Papers 8098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Flavin, Thomas & Wickens, Michael R, 2002. "Macroeconomic Influences on Optimal Asset Allocation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3144, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Heber Farnsworth & Wayne E. Ferson & David Jackson & Steven Todd, 2002. "Performance Evaluation with Stochastic Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 8791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fedorova , Elena & Vaihekoski, Mika, 2009. "Global and local sources of risk in Eastern European emerging stock markets," BOFIT Discussion Papers 27/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Vaihekoski, Mika, 1998. "Short-term returns and the predictability of Finnish stock returns," MPRA Paper 13984, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Alvaro Montenegro, 2006. "La Información Bursátil en Colombia," DOCUMENTOS DE ECONOMÍA 003031, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ. [Downloadable!]
  9. J. Benson Durham, 2001. "The effect of monetary policy on monthly and quarterly stock market returns: cross-country evidence and sensitivity analyses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. R. Anton Braun & Etsuro Shioji, 2003. "Aggregate Risk in Japanese Equity Markets," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-250, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  11. Thomas J. Flavin & Michael R. Wickens, 2001. "A Risk Management Approach to Optimal Asset Allocation," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1080301, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. B. Carmichael & L. Samson, 2003. "Expected returns and economic risk in Canadian financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 177-189, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. J Benson Durham, . "Emerging Stock Market Liberalisation, Total Returns, and Real Effects: Some Sensitivity Analyses," QEH Working Papers qehwps51, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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