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Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets

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  • King, Mervyn
  • Sentana, Enrique
  • Wadhwani, Sushil

Abstract

The authors attempt to account for the covariances between stock markets and to assess their integration. They estimate a factor model for sixteen national stock market returns whose volatility is induced by changing volatility in the factors. Unanticipated returns depend on innovations in economic variables and 'unobservable' factors. Assets risk premia are linear combinations of the factors risk premia. The authors find that idiosyncratic risk is priced and the 'price of risk' is different across stock markets. Besides, only a small proportion of their covariances can be accounted for by 'observable' economic variables. Correlation changes are driven primarily by movements in 'unobservables.' Copyright 1994 by The Econometric Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 62 (1994)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 901-33

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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:62:y:1994:i:4:p:901-33

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References

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  1. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  2. Sentana, E., 1994. "The Likelihood Function of a Conditionally Heteroskdastic Factor Model with Heywood Cases," Papers 9420, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  3. Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989. "Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
  5. Robert F. Engle & Victor Ng & Michael Rothschild, 1988. "Asset Pricing with a Factor Arch Covariance Structure: Empirical Estimates for Treasury Bills," NBER Technical Working Papers 0065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. George M. von Furstenberg & Bang Nam Jeon, 1989. "International Stock Price Movements: Links and Messages," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 125-180.
  7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
  8. S. Grossman & R. Shiller, . "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Price," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 18-80, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  9. Roll, R., 1989. "Price Volatility, International Market Links, And Their Implications For Regulatory Policies," Papers t10, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
  10. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  11. James Dunn, 1973. "A note on a sufficiency condition for uniqueness of a restricted factor matrix," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 141-143, March.
  12. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 1462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Sentana, Enrique, 1992. "Unobserved component time series models with Arch disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 129-157.
  14. Burmeister, Edwin & McElroy, Marjorie B, 1988. " Joint Estimation of Factor Sensitivities and Risk Premia for the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 721-33, July.
  15. Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April.
  16. Robert Jennrich, 1978. "Rotational equivalence of factor loading matrices with specified values," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 421-426, September.
  17. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
  18. Gultekin, Mustafa N & Gultekin, N Bulent & Penati, Alessandro, 1989. " Capital Controls and International Capital Market Segmentation: The Evidence from the Japanese and American Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 849-69, September.
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