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Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence

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Author Info
Robert J. Shiller

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Abstract

Questionnaires were sent out at the time of the October 19, 1987 stock market crash to both individual and institutional investors inquiring about their behavior during the crash. Nearly 1000 responses were received. The survey results show that: 1. no news story or rumor appearing on the 19th or over the preceding weekend was responsible for investor behavior, 2. investors' importance rating of news appearing over the preceding week showed only a slight relation to decisions to buy or sell, 3. there was a great deal of investor talk and anxiety around October 19, much more than suggested by the volume of trade, 4. Many investors thought that they could predict the market, 5. Both buyers and sellers generally thought before the crash that the market was overvalued, 6. Most investors interpreted the crash as due to the psychology of other investors, 7. Many investors were influenced by technical analysis considerations, 8. Portfolio insurance is only a small part of predetermined stop-loss behavior, and 9. Some investors changed their investment strategy before the crash.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2446.

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Date of creation: Nov 1987
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Publication status: published as Robert Shiller, Market Volatility, MIT Press, 1989
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2446

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  1. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1985. " An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 677-87, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets," NBER Working Papers 2748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Min Zheng, 2007. "The Stochastic Dynamics of Speculative Prices," Research Paper Series 208, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  3. Wing-Keung Wong & Meher Manzur & Boon-Kiat Chew, 2002. "How Rewarding Is Technical Analysis? Evidence From Singapore Stock Market," Departmental Working Papers wp0216, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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