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Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices

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  • Froot, Kenneth A
  • Obstfeld, Maurice

Abstract

Several puzzling aspects of the behavior of United States stock prices may be explained by the presence of a specific type of rational bubble that depends exclusively on aggregate dividends. The authors call bubbles of this type "intrinsic" bubbles because they derive all of their variability from exogenous economic fundamentals and none from extraneous factors. Intrinsic bubbles provide a more plausible empirical account of deviations from present-value pricing than do the traditional examples of rational bubbles. Their explanatory potential comes partly from their ability to generate persistent deviations that appear to be relatively stable over long periods. Copyright 1991 by American Economic Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 81 (1991)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1189-214

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:81:y:1991:i:5:p:1189-214

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References

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  1. Pindyck, Robert S., 1983. "Risk, inflation, and the stock market," Working papers 1423-83., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
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  11. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
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  22. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  23. Maurice Obstfeld & Robert E. Cumby & John Huizinga, 1983. "Two-Step Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  26. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October.
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