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Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock

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Author Info
Refet S. Gürkaynak

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Abstract

Can asset price bubbles be detected? This survey of econometric tests of asset price bubbles shows that, despite recent advances, econometric detection of asset price bubbles cannot be achieved with a satisfactory degree of certainty. For each paper that finds evidence of bubbles, there is another one that fits the data equally well without allowing for a bubble. We are still unable to distinguish bubbles from time-varying or regime-switching fundamentals, while many small sample econometrics problems of bubble tests remain unresolved.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2005-04.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2005-04

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Keywords: Stock - Prices ; Capital assets pricing model;

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  44. repec:bep:sndecm:3:1998:1:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dong Fu, 2007. "National, regional and metro-specific factors of the U.S. housing market," Working Papers 0707, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Market fundamentals versus rational bubbles in stock prices: a Bayesian perspective," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 35-75. [Downloadable!]
  3. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Quantitative Finance Papers 0909.1007, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
  4. Esteban Gómez & sandra Rozo, 2007. "Beyond Bubbles:The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004050, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2007. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Working Papers 222007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Esteban Gómez & Sandra Rozo, 2007. "Beyond Bubbles: The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004245, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alan G. Ahearne & John Ammer & Brian M. Doyle & Linda S. Kole & Robert F. Martin, 2005. "Monetary policy and house prices: a cross-country study," International Finance Discussion Papers 841, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Christophe Blot, 2006. "Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?," BCL working papers 20, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kevin J. Lansing, 2007. "Rational and near-rational bubbles without drift," Working Paper Series 2007-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  10. Esteban Gómez & Sandra Rozo, 2008. "Beyond Bubbles: The Role of Asset Prices in Early-Warning Indicators," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE. [Downloadable!]
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