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An Evaluation of Recent Evidence on Stock Market Bubbles

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  • Robert P. Flood
  • Robert J. Hodrick
  • Paul Kaplan

Abstract

Several recent studies have attributed a large part of asset price volatility to self-fulfilling expectations. Such an explanation is unattractive to many since it allows allocations that need bear no particular relation to those implied by the economist's standard kit of market fundamentals. We examine the evidence presented in some of these studies and find (i) that all of the bubble evidence can equally well be interpreted as evidence of model misspecification and (ii) that a slight extension of standard econometric methods points very strongly toward model misspecification as the actual reason for the failure of simple models of market fundamentals to explain asset price volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1971.

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Date of creation: Jul 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1971

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References

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  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1985. "An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 758, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-27, May.
  3. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen, 1991. "Estimating Models with Intertemporal Substitution Using Aggregate Time Series Data," NBER Working Papers 2181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-70, August.
  5. Meese, Richard A, 1986. "Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 345-73, April.
  6. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1987. "Asset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching," NBER Working Papers 1867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1981. "Speculative hyperinflations in a maximizing models: can we rule them out?," International Finance Discussion Papers 195, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D., 1982. "Kalman filtering estimation of unobserved rational expectations with an application to the German hyperinflation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 255-284, November.
  9. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  10. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-50, June.
  11. Scott, Louis O, 1985. "The Present Value Model of Stock Prices: Regression Tests and Monte Carlo Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 599-605, November.
  12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
  13. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M. & Scott, Louis O., 1984. "Multi-country tests for price level bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 329-340, December.
  15. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October.
  16. Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1985. "The Impossibility of Rational Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 1615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1989. "Testable Implications of Indeterminacies in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Esteban Gómez & Sandra Rozo, 2008. "Beyond Bubbles: The Role of Asset Prices in Early-Warning Indicators," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  3. Qin Xiao & Randolph Gee Kwang Tan, 2006. "Markov-switching Unit Root Test: A study of the Property Price Bubbles in Hong Kong and Seoul," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0602, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
  4. Refet Gurkaynak, 2005. "Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Finance 0504008, EconWPA.
  5. Robert Flood, 1988. "Asset Prices and Time-Varying Risk," NBER Working Papers 2780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Qin Xiao & Randolph Gee Kwang Tan, 2006. "Signal Extraction with Kalman Filter: A Study of the Hong Kong Property Price Bubbles," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0601, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.

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