Beyond Bubbles: The Role of Asset Prices in Early-Warning Indicators
AbstractAsset prices have recently become a common topicin economic debate. Nevertheless, much time hasbeen spent in determining if they effectively exhibita bubble component, and not in examining whetherasset prices contain relevant information concerningfuture market developments. This paper is aneffort in this direction, aimed towards the constructionof early-warning indicators for Colombia usingfinancial and real variables. Results show evidenceto support that there is relevant information embeddedin these series, as all indicators (except the newhousing price indicator) show a significant deviationfor the year(s) prior to the 98-99 crisis. Additionally,the exercises here conducted show that theperformance of asset price indicators is enhancedby including credit and investment. When the early-warning indicators are on, the role of the policymaker should be more active in the market; notnecessarily in terms of altering interest rates, butin communicating with market agents, promotingportfolio diversification and urging financial agentsto make the best use of the risk-management toolsthat are available to them.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.
Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): ()
Contact details of provider:
Asset Price Bubbles; Early-WarningIndicators; Financial Crisis; Prudential Regulation.;
Other versions of this item:
- Esteban Gómez & Sandra Rozo, 2007. "Beyond Bubbles: The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004245, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Esteban Gómez & sandra Rozo, 2007. "Beyond Bubbles:The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004050, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Esteban Gómez & Sandra Rozo, . "Beyond Bubbles: The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators," Borradores de Economia 457, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989.
"Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
3091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cochrane, John H, 1992.
"Explaining the Variance of Price-Dividend Ratios,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 243-80.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996.
"The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005.
"Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2005-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Refet Gurkaynak, 2005. "Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Finance 0504008, EconWPA.
- Fernando Tenjo & Luisa F. Charrry V. & Martha López & Juan M. Ramírez, 2007.
"Acelerador Financiero y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Un Ejercicio Exploratorio,"
BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA
004019, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Luisa F. Charry & Martha López P. & Juan M.Ramírez C., . "Acelerador Financiero y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Un Ejercicio Exploratorio," Borradores de Economia 451, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999.
"The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1987.
"Rational bubbles in stock prices?,"
87-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-54, September.
- Coudert, V. & Gex, M., 2006. "Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 9, pages 67-87, December.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?,"
NBER Working Papers
0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001.
"Lending Booms: Latin America and the World,"
NBER Working Papers
8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
- Sa, S., 2006. "Capital flows and credit booms in emerging market economies?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 9, pages 49-66, December.
- Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
- Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
- Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Rational Bubbles in the Stock Market: Accounting for the U.S. Stock-Price Volatility," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 309-19, April.
- West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 553-80, August.
- Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1990. "On the Presence of Speculative Bubbles in Stock Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 101-112, March.
- van Norden Simon & Vigfusson Robert, 1998. "Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Reliably Detect Bubbles?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, April.
- Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick & Paul Kaplan, 1986. "An Evaluation of Recent Evidence on Stock Market Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 1971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia Pabón & Nancy Zamudio Gómez, .
"Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia?,"
Temas de Estabilidad Financiera
055, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia & Nancy Zamudio, 2011. "Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
- Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2012.
"Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
22/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Espe).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.