Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia?
AbstractThis paper is an attempt at constructing a simple and effective macroprudential tool for policymakers. By integrating the joint occurrences of the main financial markets in Colombia into a single Financial Conditions Index (FCI), we hope to synthesize the information embedded in them regarding possible future economic outcomes. To do this, we use monthly data on 21 variables for the period comprised between July, 1991 - June, 2010 and apply PCA on their correlation matrix. On the one hand, we evaluate the predictive capacity of the FCI in forecasting GDP growth at different time horizons and find that it performs better as a leading indicator of real activity than other individual financial variables and an autoregressive model of GDP growth. Additionally, we are interested in testing the FCI’s long-term capability to correctly anticipate periods of distress in the economy, and find that the index could be used as an effective early-warning indicator. Hence, our FCI seems to represent a useful instrument for both financial stability and macroprudential supervision purposes.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Temas de Estabilidad Financiera with number 055.
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Cra 7 # 14-78 Piso 7
Phone: (57-1) 3431111
Fax: (57-1) 2841686
Web page: http://www.banrep.gov.co/publicaciones/pub_es_fin.htm
More information through EDIRC
Financial Conditions Index; Early-Warning Indicators; Leading Indicators; Macroprudential Supervision; Principal Component Analysis5 Classification JEL: E32; E44; E47; E51;
Other versions of this item:
- Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia & Nancy Zamudio, 2011. "Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
- Pri - Economic Systems - - - - -
- Com - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - - - -
- Ana - General Economics and Teaching - - - - -
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mayes, David G. & Viren , Matti, 2002.
"Financial Conditions Indexes,"
Economia Internazionale / International Economics,
Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 55(4), pages 521-550.
- Esteban Gómez & Sandra Rozo, .
"Beyond Bubbles: The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators,"
Borradores de Economia
457, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Esteban Gómez & Sandra Rozo, 2008. "Beyond Bubbles: The Role of Asset Prices in Early-Warning Indicators," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
- Esteban Gómez & sandra Rozo, 2007. "Beyond Bubbles:The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004050, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Esteban Gómez & Sandra Rozo, 2007. "Beyond Bubbles: The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004245, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995.
"Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,"
95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kari H. Eika & Neil R. Ericsson & Ragnar Nymoen, 1996.
"Hazards in implementing a monetary conditions index,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
568, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Eika, Kari H & Ericsson, Neil R & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1996. "Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 765-90, November.
- Eika, K.H. & Ericsson, N.R. & Nymoen, R., 1996. "Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index," Memorandum 32/1996, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2006.
"Dynamic factor models,"
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis,
Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 27-42, March.
- Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano, 2004.
"Financial Condition Index and interest rate settings: a comparative analysis,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004
1, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano, 2005. "Financial Condition Index And Interest Rate Settings: A Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 8_2005, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
- Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano, 2006. "Financial Condition Index and interest rate settings: a comparative analysis," Discussion Papers 2_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
- Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
- Stéphanie Guichard & David Turner, 2008. "Quantifying the Effect of Financial Conditions on US Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 635, OECD Publishing.
- Humberto Bernal Castro & ByronOrtega Gaitán, 2004. "¿Se ha desarrollado el mercado secundario de acciones colombiano durante el período 1988-2002?," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO UEC 003832, UNIVERSIDAD EXTERNADO DE COLOMBIA.
- Hutter,Michael & Throsby,David (ed.), 2008. "Beyond Price," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521862233, December.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998.
"The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework,"
NBER Working Papers
6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
- Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Camilo Millán).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.