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Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets

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  • Ponomarenko, Alexey

Abstract

We apply recently developed early warning indicators systems to a cross-section of emerging markets. We find that, with little or no modification, models designed to predict asset price booms/busts in advanced countries may be useful for emerging markets. The concept of monitoring a set of asset prices, real activity (especially investment) and financial (especially credit) indicators is generally found to be efficacious.

Suggested Citation

  • Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2012. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2012_022
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    early warning indicators; asset prices; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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