A forewarning indicator system for financial crises: the case of six Central and Eastern European countries

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A forewarning indicator system for financial crises: the case of six Central and Eastern European countries

Author Info

Irene Andreou () (GATE CNRS)
Gilles Dufrénot (Université Paris 12, GREQAM)
Alain Sand () (GATE CNRS)
Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand () (GATE CNRS)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Gilles Dufrénot

Abstract

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to determine whether a system produces true predictions of a crisis, but also whether there are forewarning signs of a forthcoming crisis prior to its actual occurrence. To this end, we adopt the approach initiated by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998), analyzing each indicator and calculating each threshold separately. We depart from this approach in that each country is also analyzed separately, permitting the creation of a more “custom-made” early warning system for each one.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure in its series Working Papers with number 0709.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:0709

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Paper
- Irène Andreou & Gilles Dufrénot & Alain Sand-Zantman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2007. "A forewarning indicator system for financial crises: the case of six central and eastern european countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-27, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
- Irène Andreou & Gilles Dufrénot & Alain Sand-Zantman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2009. "A forewarning indicator system for financial crises: the case of six Central and Eastern European countries," Post-Print halshs-00372728_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
- Irene Andreou & Gilles Dufrenot & Alain Sand-Zantman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2007. "A Forewarning Indicator System For Financial Crises : The Case Of Six Central And Eastern European Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp901, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
- Irène Andreou & Gilles Dufrénot & Alain Sand-Zantman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2007. "A forewarning indicator system for financial crises: the case of six Central and Eastern European countries," Post-Print halshs-00142433_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2007-09-16 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2007-09-16 (Central Banking)
NEP-EEC-2007-09-16 (European Economics)
NEP-HIS-2007-09-16 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
NEP-IFN-2007-09-16 (International Finance)
NEP-TRA-2007-09-16 (Transition Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
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Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?," NBER Working Papers 6806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional," CEPR Discussion Papers 1947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and trade: why are currency crises regional?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," NBER Working Papers 5576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1759, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-1), pages 147-216. [Downloadable!]
Darvas, Zsolt & Szapary, Gyorgy, 2000. "Financial Contagion in Five Small Open Economies: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Really Matter?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 25-51, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Arias, Guillaume & Erlandsson, Ulf, 2004. "Regime switching as an alternative early warning system of currency crises - an application to South-East Asia," Working Papers 2004:11, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]

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