This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Andrew Berg (International Monetary Fund)
Catherine Pattillo (International Monetary Fund)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed. Two of the models fail to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. This exercise suggests, though, that while forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crisis, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited. Copyright 1999, International Monetary Fund

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/staffp/1999/06-99/pdf/berg.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: main text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan Journals in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 46 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:46:y:1999:i:2:p:1

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/

Order Information:
Postal: Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Subscription Department, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, UK
Email:
Web: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/pal/subscribe/index.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Elizabeth Gale).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? There are NEP reports in over 80 fields that deliver new research to your email.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-30.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.