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Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature

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Author Info
Flood, Robert
Marion, Nancy

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Abstract

In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico and Southeast Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates. To improve our understanding of these events, researchers have undertaken new theoretical and empirical work. In this paper, we provide some perspective on this work and relate it to earlier research in the area. Then we derive the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and propose a common framework for analyzing currency crises that draws from both the first-generation work and the more recent second-generation approach. The cross-generational framework stresses the important role of speculators and also recognizes that the government's commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. In the final section we study the crisis prediction literature and find that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods. Copyright @ 1999 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 4 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-26
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:4:y:1999:i:1:p:1-26

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Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1984. "Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 90-107, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-13.

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