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Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems

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  • Sawischlewski, Katja
  • Menkhoff, Lukas
  • Beckmann, Daniela

Abstract

Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Keeping this in mind, five lessons emerge : First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises. Second, among competing crisis definitions there is one which is most practical. Third, take a logit model to condense information from various fundamental variables. Fourth, add a regional contagion dummy to the standard set of variables. Fifth, one may be tempted to address instability over time and countries by taking shorter samples and regional EWSs. --

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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics in its series Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 with number 3.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec05:3476

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Keywords: early warning system; currency crises; emerging markets;

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Cited by:
  1. Fabio Comelli, 2014. "Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 14/65, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Licchetta, Mirko, 2009. "Common determinants of currency crises: role of external balance sheet variables," Bank of England working papers 366, Bank of England.
  3. Esaka, Taro, 2013. "Evaluating the effect of de facto pegs on currency crises," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 943-963.
  4. Fabio Comelli, 2013. "Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 13/134, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Cumperayot, Phornchanok & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2013. "Early warning systems for currency crises: A multivariate extreme value approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 151-171.
  6. Su, Dongwei & He, Xingxing, 2010. "A Hybrid Intelligent Early Warning System for Predicting Economic Crises: The Case of China," MPRA Paper 19962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Jo-Hui Chen & Chih-Sean Chen, 2012. "The study of contagious paces of financial crises," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(6), pages 1825-1846, October.

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