Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment

Contents:

Author Info

  • Forbes, Kristin J.
  • Warnock, Francis E.

Abstract

This paper analyzes waves in international capital flows. We develop a new methodology for identifying episodes of extreme capital flow movements using data that differentiates activity by foreigners and domestics. We identify episodes of “surges” and “stops” (sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of gross inflows) and “flight” and “retrenchment” (sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of gross outflows). Our approach yields fundamentally different results than the previous literature that used measures of net flows. Global factors, especially global risk, are significantly associated with extreme capital flow episodes. Contagion, whether through trade, banking, or geography, is also associated with stop and retrenchment episodes. Domestic macroeconomic characteristics are generally less important, and we find little association between capital controls and the probability of having surges or stops driven by foreign capital flows. The results provide insights for different theoretical approaches explaining crises and capital flow volatility.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199612000566
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 88 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 235-251

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:88:y:2012:i:2:p:235-251

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

Related research

Keywords: Capital flows; Sudden stops; Bonanzas; Surges; Risk; Capital controls; Pull versus push;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Forbes, Kristen & Chinn, Menzie David, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," Working papers 4414-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  2. Carol C. Bertaut & Linda S. Kole, 2004. "What makes investors over or underweight? explaining international appetites for foreign equities," International Finance Discussion Papers 819, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. James Yetman & Michael B. Devereux, 2010. "leverage constraints and the international transmission of shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 1341, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "International Investment Patterns," CEPR Discussion Papers 4499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
  6. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, 05.
  7. Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Working Papers 8194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Francis E. Warnock & Hali J. Edison, 2003. "U.S. Investors' Emerging Market Equity Portfolios," IMF Working Papers 03/238, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004," CEPR Discussion Papers 5644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "The end of large current account deficits : 1970-2002 : are there lessons for the United States?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 205-268.
  12. Michael P. Dooley, 1988. "Capital Flight: A Response to Differences in Financial Risks," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(3), pages 422-436, September.
  13. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Barry Eichengreen & Muge Adalet, 2005. "Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?," NBER Working Papers 11634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Fernando Broner & Gaston Gelos & Carmen Reinhart, 2004. "When in peril, retrench: testing the portfolio channel of contagion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  16. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
  17. Caroline Freund & Frank Warnock, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 133-168 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
  19. Christian Leuz & Karl V. Lins & Francis E. Warnock, 2010. "Do Foreigners Invest Less in Poorly Governed Firms?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(3), pages 3245-3285, March.
  20. Selim Elekdag & M. Ayhan Kose & Roberto Cardarelli, 2009. "Capital Inflows," IMF Working Papers 09/40, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Albuquerque, Rui & Loayza, Norman & Serven, Luis, 2003. "World market integration through the lens of foreign direct investors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3060, The World Bank.
  22. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Beck , Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Financial institutions and markets across countries and over time - data and analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4943, The World Bank.
  24. Hali J. Edison & Francis E. Warnock, 2004. "U.S. Investors' Emerging Market Equity Portfolios: A Security-Level Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 691-704, August.
  25. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & DEC, 1994. "The new wave of private capital inflows : push or pull?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1312, The World Bank.
  26. Freund, Caroline, 2005. "Current account adjustment in industrial countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1278-1298, December.
  27. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2008. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1rh4s127, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  28. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
  30. Ju, Jiandong & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2011. "When is quality of financial system a source of comparative advantage?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 178-187, July.
  31. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects and Financial Integration," IDB Publications 6747, Inter-American Development Bank.
  32. Giannetti, Mariassunta, 2007. "Financial liberalization and banking crises: The role of capital inflows and lack of transparency," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 32-63, January.
  33. David Domeij & Martin Flodén, 2006. "Population Aging And International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1013-1032, 08.
  34. Kristin J. Forbes, 2008. "Why do foreigners invest in the United States?," Working Paper Series 2008-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  35. John M. Griffin & Federico Nardari & René M. Stulz, 2004. "Are Daily Cross-Border Equity Flows Pushed or Pulled?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 641-657, August.
  36. Alexander D. Rothenberg & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 509-524, 08.
  37. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1996. "Inflows of capital to developing countries in the 1990s," MPRA Paper 13707, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  39. Forbes, Kristin J., 2004. "The Asian flu and Russian virus: the international transmission of crises in firm-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-92, May.
  40. Geert Bekaert & Marie Hoerova & Marco Lo Duca, 2012. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Working Paper Research 229, National Bank of Belgium.
  41. Gourio, François & Siemer, Michael & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2013. "International risk cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 471-484.
  42. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  43. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Local Currency Bond Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 7.
  44. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa06-1.
  45. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
  46. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and trade: why are currency crises regional?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  47. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Cédric Tille, 2010. "The Great Retrenchment: International Capital Flows During the Global Financial Crisis," IHEID Working Papers 18-2010, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 15 Sep 2010.
  48. Mohsin S. Khan & Nadeem Ul Haque, 1985. "Foreign Borrowing and Capital Flight: A Formal Analysis (Emprunt extérieur et évasion de capitaux: analyse mathématique) (Endeudamiento externo y fuga de capitales: Un análisis formal)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 606-628, December.
  49. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "Financial development and the instability of open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1077-1106, September.
  50. Mahvash S. Qureshi & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2011. "Managing Capital Inflows: The Role of Capital Controls and Prudential Policies," NBER Working Papers 17363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Richard H. Clarida, 2007. "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clar06-2.
  52. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard & Schmukler, Sergio, 2001. "Mutual fund investment in emerging markets - an overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2529, The World Bank.
  53. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. " International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-80, December.
  54. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2009. "FINANCIAL CRISES AND LIQUIDITY SHOCKS: A Bank-Run Perspective," NBER Working Papers 15425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Hao Zhou, 2010. "Variance risk premia, asset predictability puzzles, and macroeconomic uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  57. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
  58. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," NBER Working Papers 8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S, 1997. "The International Transmission of Financial Shocks: The Case of Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 495-505, September.
  60. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "A Historical Public Debt Database," IMF Working Papers 10/245, International Monetary Fund.
  61. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 371-416, 06.
  62. Kevin Cowan & José De Gregorio, 2007. "International Borrowing, Capital Controls, and the Exchange Rate: Lessons from Chile," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 241-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. David Weil, 2006. "Population Aging," Working Papers 2006-09, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  64. Carmen Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 9-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
  66. Aggarwal, Reena & Klapper, Leora & Wysocki, Peter D., 2005. "Portfolio preferences of foreign institutional investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2919-2946, December.
  67. Shujing Li & Hamid Faruqee & Isabel K. Yan, 2004. "The Determinants of International Portfolio Holdings and Home Bias," IMF Working Papers 04/34, International Monetary Fund.
  68. Edison, Hali J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2008. "Cross-border listings, capital controls, and equity flows to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1013-1027, October.
  69. Luca Dedola & Giovanni Lombardo, 2012. "Financial frictions, financial integration and the international propagation of shocks," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 27(70), pages 319-359, 04.
  70. Kevin Cowan & José De Gregorio & Alejandro Micco & Christopher Neilson, 2008. "Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops, and Sudden Starts," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmid (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 5, pages 159-194 Central Bank of Chile.
  71. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:28:y:2003:i:6:p:a6 is not listed on IDEAS
  72. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  73. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
  74. Miroslav Misina, 2003. "What does the risk-appetite index measure?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(6), pages A6.
  75. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2006. "Tracking international bank flows," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  76. Jillian Faucette & Alexander Rothenberg & Francis Warnock, 2005. "Outflows-induced sudden stops," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 119-129.
  77. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade," NBER Working Papers 10696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  78. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee A. & Gonzalez-Hermosillo, Brenda & Martin, Vance L., 2011. "Transmission of Financial Crises and Contagion: A Latent Factor Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199739837, September.
  79. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2007. "International banking with the euro," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  80. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Introduction to "Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 1-18 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  81. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
  82. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2009. "The US dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response," BIS Working Papers 291, Bank for International Settlements.
  83. Bernard Dumas & Karen K. Lewis & Emilio Osambela, 2010. "Differences of Opinion and International Equity Markets," GSIA Working Papers 2010-E79, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  84. Richard H. Clarida, 2007. "Introduction to "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment"," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 1-10 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Capital Market Access as IDA Eligibility Criterion – Worthless and Dangerous
    by Shifting Wealth in ShiftingWealth on 2014-04-09 10:45:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:88:y:2012:i:2:p:235-251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.