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Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops

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  • Alexander D. Rothenberg
  • Francis E. Warnock
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    Abstract

    We extend the sudden stops literature by allowing crisis episodes to be caused by either the retreat of global investors, as is assumed but not shown in the extant literature, or the sudden flight of local investors. We find that almost half of the previously defined sudden stops are actually episodes of sudden flight. Compared to sudden flight, true sudden stops are bunched and are associated with greater slowdowns in economic activity and sharper currency depreciations. We show that the empirical regularities of sudden flight and true sudden stops are consistent with theoretical models that incorporate gross capital flows and information asymmetries.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12726.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12726.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2006
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    Publication status: published as Review of International Economics, Volume 19, Issue 3, pages 509–524, August 2011
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12726

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    1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2000. "Emerging Equity Markets and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 7763, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ricardo Caballero & Stavros Panageas, 2005. "A Quantitative Model of Sudden Stops and External Liquidity Management," NBER Working Papers 11293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
    4. Auguste, Sebastian & Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Kamil, Herman & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Cross-border trading as a mechanism for implicit capital flight: ADRs and the Argentine crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1259-1295, October.
    5. Mody, Ashoka & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2005. "Growing up with capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 249-266, January.
    6. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-57, May.
    7. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2000. "Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1075-1086, June.
    8. Kevin Cowan & Jose De Gregorio, 2005. "International Borrowing, Capital Controls and the Exchange Rate: Lessons from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 322, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Kristin J. Forbes, 2005. "The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch," NBER Working Papers 11372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1295-1324, 06.
    11. Michael P. Dooley, 1988. "Capital Flight: A Response to Differences in Financial Risks," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(3), pages 422-436, September.
    12. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Local Currency Bond Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 7.
    13. Albuquerque, Rui & H. Bauer, Gregory & Schneider, Martin, 2009. "Global private information in international equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-46, October.
    14. Henry, Peter Blair, 2000. "Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 301-334.
    15. Barry Eichengreen & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2006. "Why doesn’t Asia have bigger bond markets?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Asian bond markets: issues and prospects, volume 30, pages 40-77 Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Michael J. Brennan. and H. Henry Cao., 1997. "International Portfolio Investment Flows," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-271, University of California at Berkeley.
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    Cited by:
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    2. Joseph P. Byrne & Norbert Fiess, 2011. "International capital flows to emerging and developing countries: national and global determinants," Working Papers 2011_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Francisco Gallego & José Tessada, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Frictions, and Labor Market Flows: Evidence from Latin America," Working Papers ClioLab 10, EH Clio Lab. Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.
    4. Paolo Mauro, 2007. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect Against "Sudden Stops"?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(3), pages 389-411, September.
    5. Manuel Agosin & Franklin Huaita, 2009. "Overreaction in capital flows to emerging markets: Booms and sudden stops," Working Papers wp295, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    6. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo DePace, 2008. "Do European capital flows comove?," Working Papers 2008-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Malgorzata Sulimierska, 2008. "Capital Account Liberalization and Currency Crisis - The Case of Central Eastern European Countries," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1140, International Trade and Finance Association.
    8. Popov, Alexander, 2011. "Output growth and fluctuation: the role of financial openness," Working Paper Series 1368, European Central Bank.
    9. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo DePace & Johanna Francis, 2008. "The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows," Working Papers 2008-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2011. "Sudden stops : are global and local investors alike ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5569, The World Bank.
    11. Beck, Roland & Rahbari, Ebrahim, 2011. "Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1107-1127, October.
    12. Otaviano Canuto & Swati R. Ghosh, 2013. "Dealing with the Challenges of Macro Financial Linkages in Emerging Markets," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 16202, October.
    13. Peter Montiel, 2013. "The Simple Analytics of Sudden Stops," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 267-281, April.

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