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Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade

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Author Info
Michael W. Klein
Jay C. Shambaugh

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Abstract

A classic argument for a fixed exchange rate is its promotion of trade. Empirical support for this, however, is mixed. While one branch of research consistently shows a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility on trade, another, more recent, branch presents evidence of a large positive impact of currency unions on trade. This paper helps resolve this disconnect. Our results, which use a new data-based classification of fixed exchange rate regimes, show a large, significant effect of a fixed exchange rate on bilateral trade between a base country and a country that pegs to it. Furthermore, the web of fixed exchange rates created when countries link to a common base also promotes trade, but only when these countries are part of a wider system, as during the Bretton Woods period. These results suggest an economically relevant role for exchange rate regimes in trade determination since a significant amount of world trade is conducted between countries with fixed exchange rates.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10696.

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Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10696

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gabor Kezdi, 2005. "Robus Standard Error Estimation in Fixed-Effects Panel Models," Econometrics 0508018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 300-351, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Grace Juhn & Paolo Mauro, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Simple Sensitivity Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/104, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Klein, Michael W., 1990. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate volatility on United States exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 299-308, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Theo S. Eicher & Christian Henn, 2009. "One Money, One Market - A Revised Benchmark," IMF Working Papers 09/186, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2006. "What Determines Bilateral Trade Flows?," NBER Working Papers 12188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Aaron Jackson & William Miles, 2008. "Fixed Exchange Rates and Disinflation in Emerging Markets: How Large Is the Effect?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 538-557, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "Collateral damage: trade disruption and the economic impact of war," Working Paper Series 2005-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Meissner, C.M. & Oomes, N., 2006. "Why Do Countries Peg the Way They Peg? The Determinants of Anchor Currency Choice," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0643, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade: Why Are They Below Historical Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?," NBER Working Papers 14542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José Luis Peydró, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," NBER Working Papers 14887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jong-Wha Lee & Kwanho Shin, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Linkages," International Finance 0409006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Richard Baldwin & Frauke Skudelny & Daria Taglioni, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro - evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Joseph P. Byrne & Julia Darby & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "US Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Real Sectoral Bilateral Analysis," Working Papers 2006_9, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Rahman, Mizanur, 2008. "The Impact of a Common Currency on East Asian Production Networks and China’s Exports Behavior," MPRA Paper 13931, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2005. "Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Justin M. Dubas & Byung-Joo Lee & Nelson C. Mark, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cheng Hsiao & Siyan Wang, 2005. "Should China Let Her Exchange Rate Float? — the Experience of Developing Countries," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0509, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre. [Downloadable!]
  15. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2008. "Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes for MENA countries: Gravity Model Estimates of the Trade Effects," CERT Discussion Papers 0803, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University. [Downloadable!]
  16. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Nature of Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 12729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró-Alcalde, José Luis, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 7292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Paul R. Bergin & Ching-Yi Lin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin of Trade," NBER Working Papers 14126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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