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A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade

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Andrew Rose

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Abstract

Thirty-four recent studies have investigated the effect of currency union on trade, resulting in 754 point estimates of the effect. This paper is a quantitative attempt to summarize the current state of debate; meta-analysis is used to combine the disparate estimates. The chief findings are that: a) the hypothesis that there is no effect of currency union on trade can be rejected at standard significance levels; b) the combined estimate implies that a bilateral currency union increase trade by between 30% and 90%; and c) the estimates are heterogeneous and not consistently tied to most features of the studies.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10373.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10373

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F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sergio Nardis, 2003. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(4), pages 625-649, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 135-152, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mélitz, Jacques, 2001. "Geography, Trade and Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 2987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Flandreau, Marc & Maurel, Mathilde, 2001. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It," CEPR Discussion Papers 3087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Arvind Subramanian & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," NBER Working Papers 10024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Mélitz, Jacques, 2002. "Language and Foreign Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3590, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. T. D. Stanley, 2001. "Wheat from Chaff: Meta-analysis as Quantitative Literature Review," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 131-150, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-89, November.
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  10. Ritschl, Albrecht & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2003. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-war Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 4112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Dr Peter Kenen, 2002. "Currency Unions and Trade: Variations on Themes by Rose and Persson," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  12. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "On the impact of a common currency on bilateral trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 125-129, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. J. Lopez-Cordova & Chris Meissner, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1003, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46. [Downloadable!]
  17. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Maurice J.G. Bun & Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, 2002. "Has the Euro increased Trade?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-108/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  19. Christie Smith, 2002. "Currency unions and gravity models revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  20. Michael W. Klein, 2002. "Dollarization and Trade," NBER Working Papers 8879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. repec:rus:hseeco:123558 is not listed on IDEAS
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