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Currency unions and gravity models revisited

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Abstract

Gravity models have been shown to be fairly effective in modelling bilateral trading patterns, explaining more than 50 per cent of the variation in trade. This paper examines bilateral trade patterns using a data set provided by Rose and van Wincoop (2001). Rose (2000) has suggested that forming a currency union has a dramatic effect on the volume of intra-union trade. A number of econometric issues are identified with respect to this claim. There is some evidence that Rose's (2000) empirical results are not entirely robust to the sample of countries used, and to the estimation method. In particular, some of the regressors may be endogenous, which casts doubt on the magnitude of the parameter estimates.

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File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/discussion_papers/2002/dp02_07.pdf
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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2002/07.

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Length: 31p
Date of creation: Nov 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2002/07

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  1. David T. Coe & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1998. "North-South Trade-Is Africa Unusual?," IMF Working Papers 98/94, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Borders, Trade and Welfare," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 508, Boston College Department of Economics.
  5. Fitzsimons, E. & Hogan, V. & Neary, J.P., 1999. "Explaining the volume of North-South Trade in Ireland: a Gravity Model Approach," Papers 99/14, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
  6. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
  2. Havranek, Tomas, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: Is the Magic Gone?," MPRA Paper 18479, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Nov 2009.
  3. Dr Peter Kenen, 2002. "Currency Unions and Trade: Variations on Themes by Rose and Persson," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  4. Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Freitag, Stephan, 2010. "Choosing an anchor currency for the Pacific," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 112, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  6. John Hawkins & Paul Masson, 2003. "Economic aspects of regional currency areas and the use of foreign currencies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional currency areas and the use of foreign currencies, volume 17, pages 4-42 Bank for International Settlements.

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