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Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?

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  • Andrew K. Rose

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements - the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard "gravity" model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over 50 years and 175 countries. An extensive search reveals little evidence that countries joining or belonging to the GATT/WTO have different trade patterns from outsiders, though the GSP seems to have a strong effect.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 94 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 98-114

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:94:y:2004:i:1:p:98-114

Note: DOI: 10.1257/000282804322970724
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  1. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics, Boston College Department of Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
  3. Griliches, Zvi, 1986. "Economic data issues," Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1465-1514 Elsevier.
  4. Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alston, Richard M & Kearl, J R & Vaughan, Michael B, 1992. "Is There a Consensus among Economists in the 1990's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 203-09, May.
  6. Kearl, J R, et al, 1979. "A Confusion of Economists?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 28-37, May.
  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, July.
  8. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Measuring outward orientation in LDCs: Can it be done?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 307-335, May.
  9. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1981. "On the Problem of Missing Data in Linear Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 579-86, October.
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  1. Au fait, à quoi sert l'OMC exactement?
    by Alexandre Delaigue in Econoclaste on 2005-12-19 19:36:35
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