Hans Genberg (Graduate Institute of International Studies, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research) Laurent Pauwels (Graduate Institute of International Studies)
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
Inflation in a country with a currency board is usually believed to be highly dependent on external factors. Important questions for understanding the dynamics of inflation are (i) how best to measure these factors and (ii) how to model the transmission mechanism. This paper brings evidence to both questions. First, the paper shows that using CPI-based measures of foreign inflation does not adequately capture external influences on inflation in Hong Kong. Second, the paper shows that import prices and wages have a significant causal role. Together these conclusions suggest that Hong Kong¡¦s price dynamics can be modeled by a Phillips Curve in which marginal cost of production plays an important role. When we estimate a New Phillips curve model for Hong Kong, a significant forward-looking component to expectations is identified. In addition, we find that prices are relatively flexible in HK, with adjustments taking place almost twice as fast as in the United States. Finally import prices and property rental rates appear to be important components of marginal cost of production alongside wages. More traditional versions of the Phillips curve also fit the data quite well. Even in this traditional specification, however, measures based on changes in production cost outperform measures of excess demand as forcing variables.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number
012003.
Length: 26 pages Date of creation: Jan 2003 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:012003
Contact details of provider: Postal: 55th Floor , Two International Finance Centre , 8 Finance Street , Central, Hong Kong Phone: (852)2878 1978 Fax: (852)2878 7006 Email: Web page: http://www.hkimr.org More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (HKIMR).
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Griliches, Zvi, 1986.
"Economic data issues,"
Handbook of Econometrics,
in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1465-1514
Elsevier.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Did you know? You can create a compilation of all publications of a group of people, say alumni of a program, your students or memers of an association.