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Foreign versus domestic factors as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Hong Kong

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This paper uses a semi-structural vector autoregression approach to estimate the relative importance of domestic and foreign shocks as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Hong Kong since the adoption of the currency board. We find that external factors are clearly dominant in the medium- to long run. In view of the highly open nature of the Hong Kong economy and the linkages implied by the currency board arrangement, it is perhaps not unexpected. However, that these factors should account for fifty percent or more of unexpected fluctuations in real gdp and the gdp deflator at shorter horizons of one to two years is more surprising, and it is large in comparisons with other highly open small economies. Even if external shocks are dominant sources of macroeconomic fluctuations, there remain significant short-term influences of domestic variables. For example, in the historical decomposition of the evolution of output growth and inflation we discovered a significant role for domestic factors in the recent recession. Their impact resembles very much those that would be generated by a conventional aggregate supply contraction. A challenge for future research is to identify empirically the exact sources of domestic shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies in its series IHEID Working Papers with number 05-2003.

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Length: 20
Date of creation: Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heiwp05-2003

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Keywords: new keynesian monetary policy; vector autoregression; macroeconomic fluctuations; economic cycles;

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  1. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
  2. Gerlach, Stefan & Yiu, Matthew, 2002. "Unobservable-Components Estimates of Output Gaps in Five Asian Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3393, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Genberg, Hans & Salemi, Michael K. & Swoboda, Alexander, 1987. "The relative importance of foreign and domestic disturbances for aggregate fluctuations in the open economy : Switzerland, 1964-1981," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 45-67, January.
  4. Hans Genberg & Laurent Pauwels, 2003. "Inlation in Hong Kong, SAR- In Search of a Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers 012003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
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Cited by:
  1. Mehrotra, Aaron N., 2007. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era--Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 188-210, March.
  2. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Internal and external shocks in Hong Kong: Empirical evidence and policy options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-75, January.
  3. Paul D. McNelis, 2009. "Structural Change and Counterfactual Inflation-Targeting in Hong Kong," Working Papers 232009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Hans Genberg, 2005. "External shocks, transmission mechanisms and deflation in Asia," BIS Working Papers 187, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Dong He & Frank Leung & Philip Ng, 2007. "How Do Macroeconomic Developments in Mainland China Affect Hong Kong's Short-term Interest Rates?," Working Papers 0717, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

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