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Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era: evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China

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  • Mehrotra, Aaron

Abstract

We examine the role of the exchange and interest rate channels during recent deflation episodes in Japan, Hong Kong and China.We estimate open-economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models for the three economies with different monetary regimes and varying degrees of openness.In both Japan and Hong Kong, shocks to the nominal effective exchange rate have a statistically significant impact on prices, with a notably stronger effect in Hong Kong.Our results provide evidence about the role of external influences in the deflation episodes of these economies, and could also be seen to weakly support suggestions to depreciate the currency in order to escape from a liquidity trap.The importance of the interest rate channel is also found to be high in Japan and Hong Kong.In China, where interest rates have not been an important monetary policy tool, neither exchange nor interest rate shocks significantly influence price developments.

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  • Mehrotra, Aaron, 2005. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era: evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2005, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2005_017
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deflation; Zero lower bound; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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