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The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap

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Author Info
Svensson, Lars E O

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Abstract

The paper examines the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in an open economy with and without a binding zero bound on nominal interest rates. In particular, a foolproof way of escaping from a liquidity trap is suggested, consisting of a price-level target path, a devaluation of the currency and a temporary exchange rate peg, which is later abandoned in favour of price-level or inflation targeting when the price-level target has been reached. This will jump-start the economy and escape deflation by a real depreciation of the domestic currency, a lower long real interest rate, and increased inflation expectations. The abandonment of the exchange-rate peg and the shift to price-level or inflation targeting will avoid the risk of overheating. Some conclusions for Japan are included.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2566.

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Date of creation: Sep 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2566

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Related research
Keywords: Deflation; Liquidity Trap; Nominal Interest Rates;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 137-206. [Downloadable!]
  2. Buiter, Willem H & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 1999. "Liquidity Traps: How to Avoid Them and How to Escape Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 2203, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. David E. Lebow, 1993. "Monetary policy at near-zero interest rates," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 136, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September. [Downloadable!]
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  6. James Clouse & Dale Henderson & Athanasios Orphanides & David Small & P.A. Tinsley, 2003. "Monetary Policy When the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero," Topics in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 3(1), pages 1088-1088. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 438, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 Nov 1999. [Downloadable!]
  8. Harald Uhlig, 2000. "Should we be afraid of Friedman's rule?," Macroeconomics 0004016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Marvin Goodfriend, 2000. "Overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy," Working Paper 00-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Mervyn King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57. [Downloadable!]
  11. Robert L. Hetzel, 1999. "Japanese monetary policy: a quantity theory perspective," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 1-26. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Stefan Gerlach & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," NBER Working Papers 8025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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