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Should we be Afraid of Friedman's Rule?

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  • Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

Should one think of zero nominal interest rates as an undesirable liquidity trap or as the desirable Friedman rule? I use three different frameworks to discuss this issue. First, I restate Cole and Kocherlakota's (1998) analysis of Friedman's rule: short run increases in the money stock - whether through issuing spending coupons, open market operations or foreign exchange intervention - change nothing as long as the money stock shrinks in the long run. Second, two simple ‘Keynesian’ models of the inflationary process with a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates imply either that deflationary spirals should be common or that a policy close to the Friedman rule and thus some deflation is optimal. Finally, a formal ‘baby-sitting coop’ model implies multiple equilibria, but does not support the injection of liquidity to restore the good equilibrium, in contrast to Krugman (1998).
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  • Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2000. "Should we be Afraid of Friedman's Rule?," Discussion Paper 2000-62, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:75057545-86e1-4482-b63d-c1f45c62f792
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
    2. Mauro Boianovsky, 2004. "The IS-LM Model and the Liquidity Trap Concept: From Hicks to Krugman," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 36(5), pages 92-126, Supplemen.
    3. Claudio Morana, 2005. "The Japanese deflation: has it had real effects? Could it have been avoided?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1337-1352.
    4. Peter Ireland, 2005. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Peter Ireland on Money and the Business Cycle," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(1), November.
    5. Cargill, Thomas F. & Parker, Elliott, 2004. "Price deflation, money demand, and monetary policy discontinuity: a comparative view of Japan, China, and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 125-147, March.
    6. Svensson, Lars-E-O, 2001. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 277-312, February.
    7. Hunt, Benjamin & Laxton, Douglas, 2004. "The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIF) and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 187, pages 76-92, January.
    8. Al-Jarhi, Mabid, 2016. "An economic theory of Islamic finance," MPRA Paper 72698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. David Arseneau, 2012. "Expectation traps in a new Keynesian open economy model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 49(1), pages 81-112, January.
    10. Al-Jarhi, Mabid Ali, 2005. "The Case For Universal Banking As A Component Of Islamic Banking," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 13, pages 2-65.
    11. Wolman, Alexander L, 2005. "Real Implications of the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 273-296, April.
    12. Al-Jarhi, Mabid, 2004. "The Philosophy of Islamic Banking and Finance," MPRA Paper 66739, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    13. John Duffy & Daniela Puzzello, 2019. "The Friedman Rule in the Laboratory," 2019 Meeting Papers 541, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Al-Jarhi, Mabid, 2000. "السياسات النقدية في إطار إسلامي [Monetary Policy in an Islamic Framework]," MPRA Paper 67547, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2002.
    15. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 9968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. John Duffy & Daniela Puzzello, 2022. "The Friedman Rule: Experimental Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(2), pages 671-698, May.
    17. Uhlig, Harald, 2004. "Comments on "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under imperfect competition"," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 211-217, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Friedmans rule; liquidity trap; cash in advance; baby sitting coop; zero lower bound on nominal interest rates; deflation; deflationary spiral; Japan; optimal monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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