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Theoretical analysis regarding a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates

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Author Info
Bennett T. McCallum

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Abstract

This paper explores several issues concerning a possible zero lower bound (ZLB) including its theoretical rationale; the magnitude of effects of low sustained inflation on real interest rates; the validity of analyzing monetary policy in models with no monetary variables; and the dynamic stabilizing properties of Taylor rules in a ZLB context. The most important argument, however, is that if the short nominal rate is immobilized at zero, there nevertheless exists a route for monetary stabilization policy to be effective--via the foreign exchange market. Its quantitative importance is examined in a calibrated, optimizing, open-economy model.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its journal Conference Series ; [Proceedings].

Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 870-935
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcp:y:2000:p:870-935

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance) ; Interest rates ; Foreign exchange market;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lacker, Jeffrey M. & Schreft, Stacey L., 1996. "Money and credit as means of payment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 3-23, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "The perils of Taylor Rules," Departmental Working Papers 199831, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-52, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model," NBER Working Papers 6599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 137-206. [Downloadable!]
  7. Nelson, E., 1998. "Sluggish inflation and optimizing models of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 303-322, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Uhlig, H., 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper 97, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Neil Wallace, 1997. "Absence-of-double-coincidence models of money: a progress report," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-20. [Downloadable!]
  10. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1980-1), pages 143-206. [Downloadable!]
  11. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 1999. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Summers, Lawrence, 1991. "How Should Long-Term Monetary Policy Be Determined? Panel Discussion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 625-31, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Michael P. Dooley & Peter Isard, 1979. "The portfolio-balance model of exchange rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Bennett T. McCallum, 1988. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in an Overlapping-Generations Economy with Land," NBER Working Papers 1892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. repec:bep:mactop:v:3:y:2003:i:1:p:1088-1088 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1989. "On Money as a Medium of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 927-54, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 1998. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  20. Alan C. Stockman, 1992. "International Transmission Under Bretton Woods," NBER Working Papers 4127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Brian F. Madigan, 1997. "Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded At Zero," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 573-585, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Alexander L. Wolman, 1998. "Staggered price setting and the zero bound on nominal interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-24. [Downloadable!]
  23. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  24. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Arthur Grimes & Jason Wong, 1992. "The role of the exchange rate in New Zealand monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 176-197.
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  26. William Poole, 1999. "Monetary policy rules?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
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