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A Monetary Policy Rule for Automatic Prevention of a Liquidity Trap

In: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, NBER-EASE, Volume 15

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  • Bennett T. McCallum

Abstract

In analyses of "liquidity trap" problems associated with the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates, it is important to emphasize the difference between policy rule changes, intended to help escape an existing ZLB situation, and maintained policy rules designed so as to avoid ZLB situations. Analysis assuming that rule changes would lead to a new RE equilibrium immediately seems implausible. Accordingly, the paper focuses on the design of a rule that should retain stabilization effectiveness even if the economy is temporarily shocked into a ZLB situation. The rule considered is one that uses as its instrument variable a weighted average of an interest rate and the rate of depreciation of the nominal exchange rate. With a small weight attached to the depreciation term, it will be nearly irrelevant in normal situations but call for strong adjustments when the ZLB condition prevails. Stabilizing properties of this "MC" rule are studied within a small open economy model developed by McCallum and Nelson. Results indicate that under ZLB conditions the MC rule will provide strong stabilizing policy actions yet, under conditions such that the ZLB constraint is not relevant, the MC rule need not hinder monetary policy.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Takatoshi Ito & Andrew K. Rose, 2006. "Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, NBER-EASE, Volume 15," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_06-1.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 0088.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:0088

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    1. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
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    Cited by:
    1. Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Adaptive Learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 183, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Bennett T. McCallum, 2007. "Monetary Policy in East Asia: the Case of Singapore," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-010, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "External Imbalances in an Advanced, Commodity-Exporting Country: The Case of New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 12620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jacek Krawczyk & Rishab Sethi, 2007. "Satisficing Solutions for New Zealand Monetary Policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Teo, Wing Leong, 2009. "Can exchange rate rules be better than interest rate rules?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 301-311, August.
    6. Hagedorn, Marcus, 2008. "Nominal and real interest rates during an optimal disinflation in New Keynesian models," Working Paper Series 0878, European Central Bank.

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