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Exchange Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

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Author Info
Volker Wieland (Goethe University Frankfurt)
Günter Coenen (European Central Bank)

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Abstract

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of monetary policy in a severe recession and deflation when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero. We compare two alternative proposals for ameliorating the effect of the zero bound: an exchange-rate peg and price-level targeting. We conduct this quantitative comparison in an empirical macroeconometric model of Japan, the United States and the euro area. Furthermore, we use a stylised micro-founded two-country model to check our quantitative findings. We find that both proposals succeed in generating inflationary expectations and work almost equally well under full credibility of monetary policy. However, price-level targeting may be less effective under imperfect credibility, because the announced price-level target is not directly observable.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 65.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:65

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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy rules; zero interest rate bound; liquidity trap; rational expectations; nominal rigidities; exchange rates;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Günter Coenen & Volker W. Wieland, 2004. "Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 80-84, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2002. "Inflation Dynamics and International Linkages: A Model of the United States, the Euro Area and Japan," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 240, Society for Computational Economics.
    Other versions:
  3. Ben Hunt & Douglas Laxton, 2001. "The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIF) and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan," IMF Working Papers 01/186, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Karen Johnson & David Small & Ralph Tryon, 1999. "Monetary policy and price stability," International Finance Discussion Papers 641, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 137-206. [Downloadable!]
  7. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Efficient Monetary Policy Design near Price Stability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 327-365, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Buiter, Willem H & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 1999. "Liquidity Traps: How to Avoid Them and How to Escape Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 2203, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2004. "Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/14, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  10. Buiter, Willem H, 2001. "The Liquidity Trap in an Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2003. "How to Fight Deflation in a Liquidity Trap: Committing to Being Irresponsible," IMF Working Papers 03/64, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
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  14. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-1), pages 139-235. [Downloadable!]
  16. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Guenter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2003. "The Zero-Interest-Rate and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/09, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  18. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Svensson, Lars E O, 2000. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 2566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Marvin Goodfriend, 2000. "Overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 1007-1057.
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  21. Boucekkine, Raouf, 1995. "An alternative methodology for solving nonlinear forward-looking models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-734, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical analysis regarding a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 870-935.
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  23. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Liquidity Trap," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 112, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Douglas Laxton & Eswar Prasad, 1997. "Possible Effects of European Monetary Union on Switzerland: A Case Study of Policy Dilemmas Caused by Low Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate Floor," IMF Working Papers 97/23, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 1998. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  27. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Brian F. Madigan, 1997. "Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded At Zero," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 573-585, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Alexander L. Wolman, 1998. "Staggered price setting and the zero bound on nominal interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-24. [Downloadable!]
  29. James Clouse & Dale Henderson & Athanasios Orphanides & David Small & Peter Tinsley, 2000. "Monetary policy when the nominal short-term interest rate is zero," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  30. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Moore, George R, 1995. "Monetary Policy Trade-offs and the Correlation between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 219-39, March.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kenneth Lewis & Laurence Seidman, 2005. " Can Fiscal Stimulus Overcome the Zero Interest-Rate Bound?: A Quantitative Assessment," Working Papers 05-19, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paul Mizen & Tae-Hwan Kim & Alan Thanaset, 2007. "Evaluating the Taylor Principle Over the Distribution of the Interest Rate: Evidence from the US, UK and Japan," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 51, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2004. "Exchange-rate policy and the zero bound on nominal interest rates," Working Paper Series 350, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2004. "Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/14, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kenneth Lewis & Laurence Seidman, 2006. "Overcoming the Zero Interest-Rate Bound: A Quantitative Prescription," Working Papers 06-14, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Roberto Billi, 2008. "Price-level targeting and risk management in a low-inflation economy," Research Working Paper RWP 08-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hannes Haushofer & Gabriel Moser & Renate Unger, 2005. "Fundamental and Nonfundamental Factors in the Euro/U.S. Dollar Market in 2002 and 2003," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 58-76, April. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kenneth Lewis & Laurence Seidman, 2005. "A Tax Rebate in A Recession: Is It Safe and Effective?," Working Papers 05-20, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pavasuthipaisit, Robert, 2007. "Optimal exchange rate policy in a low interest rate environment," MPRA Paper 3596, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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