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Exchange Rate and Price Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound

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  • Kaufmann, Daniel
  • Bäurle, Gregor

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse nominal exchange rate and price dynamics after risk shocks with short-term interest rates constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB). We show with a stylized theoretical model that temporary risk shocks may lead to permanent shifts of the exchange rate and the price level if a central bank anchors long-run inflation expectations. In line with this theoretical prediction, we find empirical evidence for Switzerland, that the responses of the exchange rate and the price level to a temporary risk shock are permanent. Our theoretical discussion shows that adopting a credible long-run price level target rather than a long-run inflation target avoids these permanent shifts of the exchange rate and the price level. --

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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 79872.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79872

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Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/
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  1. Tom Holden, 2010. "Products, patents and productivity persistence: A DSGE model of endogenous growth," Economics Series Working Papers 512, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Svensson, Lars, 2000. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Seminar Papers 687, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  3. Robert Amano & Malik Shukayev, 2009. "Risk Premium Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Working Papers 09-27, Bank of Canada.
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  8. Almuth Scholl & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "New Evidence on the Puzzles. Results from Agnostic Identification on Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  9. Alexander L. Wolman, 2003. "Real implications of the zero bound on nominal interest rates," Working Paper 03-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  10. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "The perils of Taylor Rules," Departmental Working Papers 199831, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  11. Tom Holden & Michael Paetz, 2012. "Efficient simulation of DSGE models with inequality constraints," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1612, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  12. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-002, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  13. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open-economy model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128.
  14. Marco Huwiler & Daniel Kaufmann, 2013. "Combining disaggregate forecasts for inflation: The SNB's ARIMA model," Economic Studies 2013-07, Swiss National Bank.
  15. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Nicolas Alexis Cuche-Curti & Harris Dellas & Jean-Marc Natal, 2009. "A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2009-05, Swiss National Bank.
  17. S. Borağan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Frank Schorfheide, 2013. "Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries," NBER Working Papers 19248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
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