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Risk Premium Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

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  • ROBERT AMANO
  • MALIK SHUKAYEV

Abstract

There appears to be a disconnect between the importance of the zero bound on nominal interest rates in the real-world and predictions from quantitative DSGE models. Recent economic events have reinforced the relevance of the zero bound for monetary policy whereas quantitative models suggest that the zero bound does not constrain (optimal) monetary policy. This paper attempts to shed some light on this disconnect by studying a broader range of shocks within a standard DSGE model. Without denying the possibility of other factors, we find that risk premium shocks are key to building quantitative models where the zero bound is relevant for monetary policy design. The risk premium mechanism operates by increasing the spread between the rates of return on private capital and risk-free government bonds. Other common shocks, such as aggregate productivity, investment-specific productivity, government spending and money demand shocks, are unable to push nominal bond rates close to zero as the same risk premium spread mechanism is not at play.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00541.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 44 (2012)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
Pages: 1475-1505

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:44:y:2012:i:8:p:1475-1505

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Cited by:
  1. Julio Carrillo & Celine Poilly, 2013. "How do financial frictions affect the spending multiplier during a liquidity trap?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 296-311, April.
  2. Merola, Rossana, 2010. "Financial frictions and the zero lower bound on interest rates: a DSGE analysis," MPRA Paper 29365, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
  4. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2012. "News, Credit Spreads and Default Costs: An expectations-driven interpretation of the recent boom-bust cycle in the U.S," Department of Economics Working Papers 2012-04, McMaster University.
  5. Sami Alpanda & Gino Cateau & Césaire Meh, 2014. "A Policy Model to Analyze Macroprudential Regulations and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 14-6, Bank of Canada.
  6. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2010. "An Expectations-Driven Interpretation of the "Great Recession"," Carleton Economic Papers 13-02, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 22 Feb 2013.
  7. Kaufmann, Daniel & Bäurle, Gregor, 2013. "Exchange Rate and Price Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79872, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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